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This timeline explores what would happen if a accidential Soviet airspace violation by a U2 had caused WWIII.
Before commenting, please note that a U2 did actually accidentaly violate Soviet Airspace on October 26, 1962. I got most of my information on
On October 26, 1962, a U2 pilot flying over the North Pole made a series of navigational errors, because the shifting lights of the aurora borealis prevented him from taking accurate readings with his sextant. As a result, he ended up flying over the Chukotski Peninsula in northern Siberia, causing the Soviets to order a number of MiG interceptors to shoot his plane down immediately.
Instead of letting him be shot down, however, the United States responded quickly by sending out F-102A fighters, armed with nuclear missiles, to escort the U2 back to American airspace and prevent the MiGs from following it. Nikita Khrushchev was furious that American fighter jets had intruded Soviet Airspace; he gave the MiGs the order to attack. Hearing about this, President Kennedy gave the order to launch a retaliatory nuclear attack on the Soviets. Kennedy was rushed to the NAECS, ands within minutes, hundreds of Minutemen were flying to the Soviet Union.