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Let's just say for a minute that the Confederacy could've won the war, as impossible as it was. After all, there were many occasions where the tide could've turned, for example, if Robert E. Lee had not decided to confront George Meade's Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg but instead marched North, taking the Union by surprise or perhaps when the CSA starved off Europe from its cotton trade, a major power recognised the Confederates and intervened accordingly? This timeline is only one of many possible worlds that could've been ...
10 September 1862 (Point of Divergence):
A Confederate soldier trailing behind the rest of the Confederacy's army, finds General Robert E. Lee's "Special Order 191" which was previously lost by a Confederate messenger.
12 July 1862:
With the orders recovered, Lee begins his advance into the North.
30 August 1862::
Lee's advance takes the Union army (led by General George McClellan), by surprise at Lancaster, inflicting heavy casualties upon the Army of the Potomac, forcing McClellan to retreat.
1 October 1862:
The successful Lee begins a siege of Philadelphia.
2 October 1862:
Having seen the major Confederate victory at Lancaster, the siege of Philadelphia and the Union evacuation of the surrounded Washington D.C., Great Britain officially recognizes the Confederate States of America and declares war on the United States in support.
22 October 1862:
Philadelphia finally falls to the siege and Confederate forces ransack the city.
November - December 1862:
Great Britain conducts a massive attack on the United States, assaulting at Detroit and Boston, beginning an occupation of the New England states.
The British Army at Detroit marches onwards into Ohio where it encounters Ulysses S. Grant's Army on its way to reinforce the surviving Army of the Potomac. The Battle of Scioto River led to the decimation of Grant's unprepared forces leaving heavy casualties and deaths. The remaining forces led by Grant retreat West followed in pursuit by the British.
The British Army at Boston meets up and begins a siege of New York, the provisional capital of the US government.
By the start of the year, British and Confederate forces successfully occupy the majority of the East Coast of America while the US government and remaining Union forces flee West. The Union blockade of the Confederacy is also broken near the end of January 1863 by the British Navy, allowing British and Confederate forces to free New Orleans from the Union and to open the Mississippi River to British ships and vessels.
British Forces head from New York and Baltimore towards the Union-held city of Charleston where the remnants of the US army have been left. McClellan and Grant take the remains of the Union forces to intercept the British and Confederates causing both sides to suffer massive casualties, but soon enough, the British and Confederates overwhelm the Armies. Grant surrenders to the enemy while McClellan is killed in battle.
With the Union army left shattered and without leadership and the majority of the East Coast cities occupied by enemy soldiers, the US government in California offers peace with the CSA and UK. There is outrage across the US states once an armistice is declared between the two sides on the 30th of July, 1863.
19 July 1863 (End of the Civil War):
The "Treaty of Kingston", signed on the 19th of July 1863 and finally puts an end to the war. It grants the 11 Confederate states their independence, cedes the territories of Southern Arizona and New Mexico, Southern Maryland, the District of Columbia and the Oklahoma territory to the Confederacy . Unlike the CSA , Britain refuses territorial concessions or financial reparations from the United States but instead, requests the US accepts the current US-Canadian border and to withdraw any disputes it has over the issue.
1863 - 1870:
The Confederate States of America begin the era known as "Reformation." This involved a massive reform of slavery under the "Memphis Agreement," huge industrial and economic production under British investment and massive political changes. Quickly the CSA rises to become an influential power in the Americas. Meanwhile, up North in the US, Abraham Lincoln, now shamed in the eyes of the Northern public retires from his role as Head of State leaving his Vice-President, Hannibal Hamlin, to take power and to pass the Fourteenth Amendment. Although the Amendment passes, it barely does so and alienates much of the populace living in the remaining slave states that continue to exist in the Union.
With the Union near economic collapse with the loss of so much land and its capital, the government begins a continuation of the "Manifest Destiny," continuing to expand the transcontinental railroads and setting up new federal states within the Western US territories. On September 1866, US forces occupy Hawaii, quickly annexing it on the 10th of November.
Meanwhile, the French continue to prop up the Mexican Empire, beginning an era of prosperity in Mexico as French investments continue to help the local economy while the French soldiers occupying Mexico continue to assist in protection from it's two Northern neighbours.
1873 (The Kentucky Crisis):
The Union state of Kentucky, once a slave state that sided with the US in the "War of Secession," attempts to join the Confederacy on the 5th of March, causing political chaos across the nation. At first the CSA welcomes Kentucky joining the nation as a new state but soon the government decides against it, not wishing to anger their Northern brother just as relations between the two were cooling. On the 17th of April, the Union government temporarily ceases the Kentucky federal government and issues a shutdown of all government offices and divisions and enacts direct rule from Washington. The crisis is averted, but democratic rule in Kentucky is not restored until the two years later on the 29th of December, 1975.
1875 - 1980 (The Mexican Wars):
With new found wealth and power and under the protection of the mighty French Empire, Mexico begins attempts to expand power and influence within Central America to make up for the land lost in the American-Mexican War. These expansionist wars and occupations are known as the "Mexican Wars." In order the wars were:
The First Mexican-Coalition War: A war between the states of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador (the First Coalition) and Mexico started on the 26th of April, 1875. Ends with the "Treaty of Tapachula" on the 15th of June, 1875 which sees Guatemala and El Salvador annexed by Mexico while Honduras is left occupied by the Mexican army.
The Mexican-Honduran War: An attempt to end the Mexican occupation on the 3rd of December, 1975, ends on the 3rd of March, 1976, with the annexation of Honduras.
The Second Mexican-Coalition War: After Guatemala declares independence on the 9th of May, 1977, it fights a guerrilla war against its occupiers with moderate success. On the 18th of July, Honduras also declares independence, causing Nicaragua to join the war on the 9th of August. With the Central America states effectively pushing back the Mexicans, they unite to form the "Second Federal Republic of Central America" eventually invading Yucatan. But soon the Mexican army reassembles in the North and marches on the offensive once again, annihilating the revolt once and for all, quickly annexing the federation on the 5th of January, 1978.
The Mexican Invasion of Costa Rica: The final war was on the 18th of October, when Mexican forces invaded Costa Rica and established it as a protectorate, later incorporating it as an official province nine months later.
1899 - 1901 (Spanish-Confederate War):
On the 8th of July, 1899, Confederate forces intervene on behalf of Cuban soldiers in the "Cuban War of Independence (seeing their war for secession similar to their own)." This causes Spain to declare war on the Confederates sparking of the Spanish-Confederate War. It does not take long for the Confederate soldiers to overwhelm Spanish defences and Cuba quickly falls. The surviving Spanish fleet and soldiers retreat to Puerto Rico where the Confederate soldiers lay siege to the island and its inhabitants.
After six months, the islands supplies end up fully depleted and anarchy has descended across the colony allowing Confederate soldiers to easily take the island.
Meanwhile, negotiations had begun with the Union between the Confederate's "Head of Foreign Affairs" and the Union's "Secretary of State," over a possible US intervention on behalf of the Confederates and the Cuban rebels. On the 1st of February, 1900, the United States Army begins a massive amphibious invasion of the Spanish-held Philippines, beginning a year-long campaign which quickly helps to decimate any remaining Spanish power in the Far East.
With the Spanish Army completely shattered, Spain is forced to sign the "Treaty of Paris" which hands Puerto Rico to the Confederates and establishes Cuba as a Confederate protectorate while allowing US forces to occupy the Philippines and establish a colony there. The war ruins Spain's prestige and the once powerful Spanish Empire is no more than a memory.