Philippine rebels are more successful than in OTL, capturing Manila Bay Harbor before the Americans arrive. The US Marines do not land, the Philippines are not occupied and thus receive little interest from congress. In the peace treaty between the US and Spain, the US does not gain PH and Guam, leading to a US that does not seek domination of the Asia-Pacific region, along with a much weaker navy, and no American Pacific empire.
In turn, this means that the US mediation of the Russo-Japanese war goes differently, and Japanese militarists are placated by the West instead of antagonized. Japan heads towards the path of democratic reform, and does not slip under the control of junior officers. This non-militarist Japan does not invade China, and thus does not have the need to invade the South Pacific Islands. no war occurs in East Asia, and the Japanese Empire endures as a stable mostly-democratic constitutional monarchy, facing off against the US and USSR.
The orignal TL thread on alternatehistory.com and can be found here .