Alternate History

Timeline (President Paul)

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  • A large oil spill of the coast of Houston, Texas occurs. The effects are devastating and far reaching. 117 people die and Exon Mobil shares plummet. George W. Bush announces that he will not run for President.
  • Congressman Ron Paul of Texas takes notice of the large number of non-traditional Republicans declaring their candidacy for President of the United States. Paul is upset that their are few candidates representing the old right.
  • In March Paul forms an exploratory committee to investigate the possibilities of running for President.
  • In April influential conservative Steve Forbes announces he will not be running for President.
  • By May Paul has made a decision. He soon announces his candidacy for President of the United States.
  • A June Gallop poll shows the support for each Republican candidate as follows:

-John McCain 21%

-Elizabeth Dole 15%

-Lamar Alexander 11%

-Pat Buchanan 10%

-Dan Quayle 9%

-Orrin Hatch 5%

-Ron Paul 4%

-Alan Keyes 4%

-John Kaisch 2%

-Robert Smith 2%

  • During the first Republican debate front runner, John McCain, gets into an argument with Congressman Paul over U.S intervention in Kosovo. Paul, opposing intervention states intervention and entanglement in alliances and the affairs of other nations is not what the founders would have wanted and is a disaster in terms of a proper and non-hypocritical stance in world affairs. Senator McCain has quite clearly stood in favour of these very non-Republican positions which is why I am confident he will make a great vice president for Al Gore! The remark proves to be a large boost for the Paul campaign and essentially doubles his numbers. McCain's week response back fires and his numbers soon begin to slip.
  • By August Pat Buchanan had made up his mind and decided he was to drop out of the race. In a large surprise Buchanan endorses Paul for the presidency. This in turn is followed by the endorsement of Steve Forbes, which gives Paul another large bump in the polls.

-John McCain 23%

-Elizabeth Dole 14%

-Ron Paul 14%

-Lamar Alexander 12%

-Dan Quayle 6%

-Alan Keyes 6%

-Orrin Hatch 3%

-John Kaisch 2%

-Robert Smith 2%

  • In September the several debates are held between Republican candidates. Paul continues to give frequent reference to his strong fiscally conservative reputation. This in turn becomes a strong plank for attack against McCain who again is battered by strong attacks from Paul.

-Ron Paul 22%

-John McCain 19%

-Elizabeth Dole 10%

-Lamar Alexander 9%

-Alan Keyes 7%

-John Kaisch 3%

  • By October with Paul's campaign ascendant the McCain campaign releases a series of attack adds against Paul stating that Paul's foreign policy was isolationist and that he was supported largely by racists (based on comments from a Ron Paul news letter in the early 90's). The adds also promoted McCain's honour and his so called good relationship with former President Reagan.

-John McCain 28%

-Ron Paul 17%

-Elizabeth Dole 10%

-Lamar Alexander 8%

-Alan Keyes 7%

-John Kaisch 3%

  • In November with just two months until the Iowa caucus the Paul campaign launches a series of adds that contradict McCain's main assertions regarding congressman Paul. The adds show that Paul's foreign policy is in fact non-interventionist and targets the fact that McCain voted to not make Martin Luther King's birthday a holiday. The adds also quote the many great things Reagan said about Paul during the 1980's. The adds allow Paul to rebound from his position in the polls and allow him to bring down McCain's level of support nationally by a significant margin.

-John McCain 24%

-Ron Paul 22%

-Elizabeth Dole 7%

-Alan Keyes 7%

-Lamar Alexander 5%

-John Kaisch 1%

  • In December with the Iowa Caucus just weeks away a fierce debate is held in which McCain refers to Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson as agents of intolerance. The remark back fires and essentially leads to a large slide in the polls for McCain's campaign in Iowa.

Iowa Caucus Poll December 1999

-Ron Paul 47%

-Elizabeth Dole 28%

-John McCain 24%

-Lamar Alexander 6%


  • Early January polls show Ron Paul placing first in the Iowa caucus with McCain placing third behind Elizabeth Dole. On the eve of the contest the Paul campaign is boosted by the endorsement of Texas Governor George Bush. On election day Paul Obliterates McCain in Iowa winning 54% of the vote to McCain's 19% and Dole's 32%.
  • The following week McCain rebounds to win the New Hampshire primary by a reduced margin. Dole drops out of the race a day later.
  • McCain's momentum soon disappears after a large loss in South Carolina and Ron Paul goes on to win most states on super Tuesday. With losses mounting McCain soon drops out of the race and Ron Paul becomes the Republican presumptive nominee.

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