Alternate History

Timeline (Article 5)

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In the future this may be further generalized, with its more specific constituent parts divided into more topical timelines.


  • February 2 - In response to the success of the Orange Revolution, Russia invades Ukraine. With the Ukrainian government already in disarray from the rapid change in leadership, the Ukrainian army offers no armed resistance. General of the Army of Ukraine and Chief of the General Staff Sergei Kirichenko - a Yushchenko appointee - covertly begins negotiations with Moscow and refuses to mobilize the reserves, realizing that to preserve his position he must collaborate with the Russians.
  • February 4 - The United States formally condemns Russian actions in Ukraine.
  • February 16 - Russian troops enter Kiev - Ukrainian troops surrender in droves, and Russian troops are ordered not to engage Ukrainian forces in any case.
  • February 19 - The Ukrainian Armed Forces officially surrenders to Russia as the remnants of the stillborn government flee to the west. Russian control of Ukraine is absolute by this date.
  • February 21 - Negotiations between the Ukrainian Army brass and Russian officials conclude, and General Sergei Kirichenko is allowed to remain in command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, if he continues to cooperate with Moscow. The Ukrainian civilian government will not only be a Russian puppet, but a figurehead, with the military exercising all real power in Ukrainian society.
  • February 25 - Russian mechanized formations begin to establish semi-permanent bases in eastern Ukraine and plans are announced to base two Russian Su-27 squadrons at Ukrainian airfields. Russian OMON troops establish themselves in major urban centers such as Kiev and Odessa.
  • March 4 - The result of the previous run-off election is declared invalid, and Viktor Yanukovych is reinstated as the head of a provisional Ukrainian government - the new government announces that it will hold a special election on March 15 - Yanukovych praises 'the defense of the Ukrainian people by the brave soldiers of the Russian Federation' and asks Moscow to keep troops in country until September 2007.
  • March 15 - Viktor Yanukovych is elected President of Ukraine in a landslide election, with 87% of the vote. The elections are highly suspect, with large contingents of Russian OMON troops present at polling stations, ostensibly to 'keep the peace.'
  • March 22 - The UN General Assembly passes a resolution expressing 'concern' over Russian actions in Ukraine - the resolution is a watered-down version of a condemnation that failed in early March. Russia vetoes all Security Council resolutions on the subject of Ukraine.


  • November 7 - Arnold Schwarzenegger loses re-election for governor of California to Phil Angelides, the California State Treasurer.


  • January 23 - President Bush announces the deployment of 20,000 additional troops to Iraq in his State of the Union address, in order to combat growing sectarian violence in Baghdad and Anbar province.
  • August 16 - Most Russian personnel have been withdrawn from Ukraine - protests ensue almost immediately and are met with a heavy-handed government response.
  • September 13 - 14 protesters are killed in Maidan Square, Kiev, by Ukrainian internal security forces supported and trained by Russian advisers. The Bush administration swiftly condemns Russian actions, as does much of the western world.
  • September 14 - The UK bank Northern Rock receives a liquidity support facility from the British government, provoking a panic among depositors and triggering the first bank run in the UK in 150 years.
  • September 15 - Protests in Maidan escalate into open violence between protesters and police - four riot police and three protesters are killed in separate incidents.
  • September 21 - The United States expresses support for protesters in Kiev, and condemns the Ukrainian government for it's violent approach to quelling growing unrest.
  • September 23 - Protesters attempt to storm the Ukrainian presidential compound and are repulsed with tear gas and rubber bullets; three protesters are killed.
  • September 25 - Militants associated with the far-right Svoboda political party fire three RPG-29 anti-tank rockets into the Verkhovna Rada building, the meeting place of the Ukrainian Parliament during a meeting session; 18 MPs are killed and a further 27 wounded - nine others were also killed. A state of emergency is declared almost immediately.
  • September 26 - Kirichenko declares a national curfew at 8PM The Ukrainian Army mobilizes its reserves and begins troop deployments in major urban centers. Martial law is effectively imposed by mid-afternoon, and Svoboda operatives across the country are systematically arrested, along with a number of pro-Russia activists that are accused of 'fascist sympathies.'
  • September 27 - General Kirichenko dissolves the Rada - top SBU and government officials are arrested by military police - President Yanukovych flees to Russia before he can be apprehended. Kirichenko announces the creation of a provisional military government and pledges that new elections will be held by March. He also formally dissolves the SBU and the Berkut, solidifying military control over the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the militsiya. Protests begin to die down with the ouster of Yanukovych, and with anger and grief provoked by the terrorist attack on the 25th. Development of an effective new security apparatus becomes one of Kirichenko's top priorities in the coming months.
  • September 28 - Russia severs diplomatic ties with Ukraine and issues a scathing condemnation of the Ukrainian coup.
  • October 1 - NATO releases satellite imagery of purported Russian mobilization in the Southern Military District and pledges to support 'the transition of the Ukrainian people to a stable, free, and secure society'
  • October 2 - Russian troops in Sevastopol move to surround Ukrainian military installations and government buildings, and substantial reinforcements are deployed to the peninsula to deter Ukrainian garrisons from acting.
  • October 3 - The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group enters the Mediterranean and is slated to remain there indefinitely.
  • October 4 - Fighting erupts between Ukrainian and Russian troops in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine. Attacks by Russian forces follow closely after in Mariupol and Kharkiv. Rockets fired from a BM-27 Urugan strike a school in Luhanksk, killing 73 and wounding hundreds more.
  • October 5 - Ukrainian troops withdraw from Luhansk after taking heavy casualties. Russian troops are sighted as far west as Donetsk and Kramatorsk.
  • October 6 - President Bush condemns Russian aggression in a speech given from the oval office, and announces the transfer of two F-15C squadrons to EUCOM, along with a complete trade embargo against the Russian Federation. The EU follows shortly thereafter, and Russia is ejected from the G7.
  • October 7 - Russia begins a concerted SEAD effort against SAM sites and radars in eastern Ukraine, coupled with extensive runway cratering operations. The situation is compounded when 9 Ukrainian Su-27s are destroyed on the ground by a Russian Su-24 strike on Vasylkiv airbase near Kiev.
  • October 8 - Ukraine announces a universal conscription program for all males ages 20-21. The EU and NATO initiate emergency arms shipments to Ukraine, with Poland alone pledging to contribute upwards of 40 antiquated T-72Bs. Russian troops shatter a Ukrainian armored formation immediately to the east of Kharkiv - the city is lost with 1,300 civilians killed, 37 Ukrainian T-64s destroyed, and 357 Ukrainian casualties. 6 T-90s are lost over the course of the battle, along with an indeterminate number of Russian servicemen.
  • October 9 - Civilians begin to report sightings of special forces troops near Kovel, wearing no insignia and carrying Russian equipment. It is quickly presumed that they were infiltrated from Belarus. Poland also begins general mobilization at this date.
  • October 10 - 23 Ukrainian civilians are massacred by Russian troops in Luhansk - the killing is captured on video and widely circulated on the internet and western media. The killings rapidly elicit international condemnation, and will later generate further political will to provide arms to Ukraine and increase European defense spending.
  • October 11 - A Russian mechanized column is ambushed at the Valky river crossing by a platoon of well placed Ukrainian T-84Us - 14 Russian T-90s are destroyed before the T-64s are outflanked and forced to withdraw, losing only one of their number. The Russian advance to Poltava is significantly delayed
  • October 12 - 65% of the Ukrainian air force's aircraft inventory is destroyed by this date. The United States announces the redeployment of a full brigade combat team and its supporting infrastructure from Iraq amid declarations that the level of violence in Iraq is at its lowest since the initial stages of the invasion. The redeployment of the BCT, slated to be stationed in eastern Germany, is condemned by Russia, especially as it effectively constitutes a violation of the understanding between the West and Russia regarding the development of military infrastructure in eastern Germany.
  • October 13 - Russian troops seize Melitopol. unopposed, near the occupied Crimean peninsula, in an effort to interdict Ukrainian reinforcement of Mariupol, the site of fierce urban fighting for almost a week. Russian troops also attempt to seize the Dneiper river crossing at Kherson but are repulsed by a Ukrainian infantry battalion.
  • October 16 - Russian president Vladimir Putin gives a rousing speech to the Russian State Duma calling for increased import substitution and greater economic independence. He also expresses determination to continue with the war and 'bring the insurrectionists in Novorossiya back into the Eurasian community.'
  • October 17 - Russian troops push into Poltava, but are met with heavy resistance - nonetheless by mid-afternoon they have pushed to within mortar range of Poltava airport - fighting dies down in Mariupol, where Russian troops have achieved a pyrrhic victory, sustaining over 600 casualties in the two-week battle.
  • October 18 - Russian troops take up positions at Slovyansk, forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Kramatorsk or face encirclement. The Ukrainian commander begins to withdraw troops along highway M04 after sunset and no significant concentrations of Ukrainian troops are left east of Kharkiv by the October 20.
  • October 21 - Russian troops seize Poltava Airport and begin attacking Kremenchuk. Fighting continues in Poltava for another four days. Russian Tu-22M bombers conduct multiple strikes on Dnepropetrovsk and military installations near Kiev.
  • October 22 - Russian forces push into Lubny along highway M03, placing Russian armored units within 100 miles of Kiev.
  • October 23 - Germany announces a 7 billion euro increase to its defense budget and the expansion of the Bundeswehr by 12,000 men.
  • October 24 - A major antiwar protest is staged in Washington DC. It proceeds peacefully, but with little attention from the media. Russian troops seize Kherson. Total casualties from the war in Ukraine now number over 10,000.
  • October 25 - Multiple explosions occur at Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, critically damaging the plant's cooling system and causing a meltdown of reactor 2. The three remaining reactors are shut down immediately. The U.S. and EU immediately pledge support and dispatch nuclear response teams, while localized evacuations proceed immediately, recalling the disastrous experience of Chernobyl in 1986.
  • October 26 - Fires at Rivne are finally extinguished by mid-morning. Contamination is judged to be substantial and widespread evacuations of all settlements within a 30km radius take place, though similar evacuations on the Belorussian side of the border are not ordered for another two days. The incident is rated level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale.
  • October 27 - Russian special forces exchange fire with Ukrainian national guardsmen at the Belorussian border, around 22km from Rivne NPP. Many in western intelligence circles begin to speculate covert Russian involvement in the Rivne incident.
  • October 29 - Russian troops begin a major offensive across the Dnieper river, with their primary axis of attack focused on Kiev. France and Britain fully mobilize their militaries and begin to reverse defense cuts, while the United States begins preparations to rebase an F-22A squadron to Europe. Elements of the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division redeploy from Iraq - the remainder of the BCT is in Poland by November 15.
  • October 30 - Russian Tu-95 bombers violate British airspace near Glasgow - they are intercepted by British Typhoons and turned back without significant incident.
  • November 1 - Plans are announced to reactivate VII Corps and deploy it to Europe, as the V Corps deployment to Iraq left EUCOM without a corps level HQ.
  • November 2 - The death toll from the Rivne incident reaches 127 people. Greenpeace stages anti-nuclear protests across Europe and the United States, and other groups plan anti-war protests (though these are significantly less popular). Meanwhile, Russian troops assailing Dnepropetrovsk are repulsed by a stalwart Ukrainian defense. The Ukrainians do not fare so well to the south however, losing the Zaporizhia river crossing to a Russian mechanized battalion.
  • November 3 - Russian troops reach the Darnytsia district of Kiev, and begin a slow advance into the east bank areas of the city that will take weeks. All remaining Ukrainian administrative personnel in the city evacuate, along with some 400,000 civilians. Refugees clog main arteries out of the area and complicate Ukrainian logistics, but with a full infantry division stationed in and around the city along with a sizable ammunition supply, this is not problematic.
  • November 4 - 58 Ukrainian civilians are killed in airstrikes throughout Kiev. Russian troops initiate another attack against Ukrainian positions in Dnepropetrovsk, and supported by an armored thrust from Zaporizhia, they manage to secure most of the east bank portion of the city. River crossings are made in the evening and significant gains are made across the river.
  • November 5 - 63 Ukrainian civilians and over 40 Ukrainian servicemen are killed by artillery and airstrikes throughout Kiev as Russian troops continue to attempt to push through Darnytsia. Ukrainian resistance is stiff, and Russian forces frequently resort to blowing strongpoints away with artillery or air assets instead of clearing them. Nevertheless, Russian troops take heavy casualties and make little progress.
  • November 6 - Russian soldiers execute 8 suspected Ukrainian insurgents near the town of Lozova for sabotage, in an act that is captured on video by a local resident and uploaded to various video sharing websites. The video goes viral and generates a great deal of outrage in the West.
  • November 8 - Russian advances around Kiev are slowed, and the intensity of air and artillery strikes is reduced amid international outrage generated by images of the siege widely disseminated across social media. Elsewhere Russian troops continue to

rush across the countryside as the Ukrainian army begins to rout - numerous mass surrenders take place across the country.

  • November 11 - Evidence of explosives revenue at Rivne NPP is leaked to western mass media by a source within the FBI - previously unfounded speculation about the involvement of Russian intelligence now seems much more concrete in the public conscious, especially after the media discovers Ukrainian military reports about Spetznaz units infiltrating across the Belorussian border. The Russian foreign ministry vehemently deny involvement, and Russian state media floats theories about Ukrainian plots to gain international sympathy by blowing up their own reactor.
  • November 13 - An American journalist is taken hostage near Kherson - Ukrainian troops in Dnepropetrovsk surrender en masse as it becomes clear that further resistance is fruitless - the city had been surrounded for much of a month after successful Russian river crossings in Zaporizhia and Kremenchuk. The U.S. and EU expand sanctions against Russia to include the entire energy sector, critically damaging the Russian economy. By the end of the day the Ruble loses 40% of its value.
  • November 15 -Russian troops in Kiev begin to push into the Dnipro district, but advance mostly along the river in an effort to cut off Ukrainian retreat further into the city.
  • November 18 - Russian troops begin a major offensive into the Dnieper Upland, pushing aggressively with a full two divisions of T-90A main battle tanks and making liberal use of artillery and cluster munitions (mainly delivered by platforms such as the BM-30); Ukrainian forces begin to disintegrate, with many Ukrainian soldiers discarding their uniforms and attempting to blend in with civilian refugees.
  • November 19 - In the second day of the Dnieper offensive, Russian troops push over 100km from Kremenchuk to Kirovohrad, cutting off Ukrainian troops entrenched in Kryvyi Rih from retreat to the north. Simultaneously, Russian light infantry surprise a complacent Ukrainian garrison at Mykolaiv, seizing the town with only 40 minutes of fighting. Regular Ukrainian troops in the area had been diverted elsewhere after the Russians halted their advance at Kherson on October 13, leaving behind only a few hundred inexperienced paramilitaries to defend the area. Resources are hastily diverted from Odessa in an effort to limit Russian gains.
  • November 20 - Russian troops cross the Dnieper once more at Kaniv, south of Kiev. Ukrainian resistance is confused and halfhearted as Russian troops pour into Myronivka and Korsun. Engineers begin major bridging operations to free up existing crossings for logistics.
  • November 21 - The Ukrainian government sets up an acting capital at Lviv, inviting western states to establish temporary diplomatic missions. NATO establishes an intelligence liaison with the Ukrainian army. A major supply depot outside Odessa is destroyed by Russian Spetsnaz.
  • November 22 - A flight of Russian Su-27s out of Kaliningrad is intercepted by U.S. F-16s over Lithuanian airspace - they turn back without violence. The U.S. pledges to defend the sovereignty of the Baltic states and pledges to begin a 24/7 AEW patrol over the Baltic by month's end.
  • November 24 - Over 55,000 Russian troops are now over the Dneiper, creating an immense burden on an immature logistical network. Offensive action stalls out by evening in the Dnieper Upland, but fierce fighting continues around Kiev. By this date over 60,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed or captured and most of its war materiel reserves are in Russian hands.
  • November 25 - Ukrainian partisans ambush a Russian patrol near Kremenchuk. Three of the fighters are killed, along with two Russian soldiers. This marks a sharp uptick in insurgent action by pro-government forces across the Russian occupied territories; the Kremlin alleges that NATO is providing arms to the insurgents, a claim met with sharp rebuke from Washington.
  • November 26 - Two workers die from radiation exposure at the Rivne site; the IAEA offers additional assistance to the Ukrainian government in response, and the United States dispatches a CERFP.
  • November 29 - A U.S. F-15 squadron is rebased from Kuwait to Romania, drawing protests from the Russian embassy in Washington. Russian forces make further progress into Kiev, inflicting heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces via heavy application of artillery and airpower. One Russian artillery battery is reported to have fired over four hundred rounds in the space of a few hours.
  • November 30 - Ukrainian troops in Kiev begin to surrender in large numbers as their supplies become exhausted and resupply routes are cut off by Russian airmobile forces. Sporadic fighting continues into mid-december and a crackdown on the insurgents that will invariably begin operations is organized. A 1700 curfew is mandated in all occupied cities and a provisional military government is established at Donetsk.
  • December 1 - General Kirichenko flees to Romania, though this does not become apparent for another three days. Russian troops restart offensives in the Dnieper upland and meet little resistance, slowed down only by the processing of Ukrainian prisoners.
  • December 6 - The Ukrainian army effectively collapses across the front, with entire Ukrainian divisions laying down their arms and fleeing or surrendering. Command and control has completely broken down.
  • December 16 - British troops in Basra province, Iraq hand over security responsibilities to the Iraqi army and police.
  • December 17 - Russian troops reach the Moldovan border, effectively controlling all of Ukraine. Some special forces units reportedly cross into Transnistria, a charge the Kremlin vehemently denies. The headquarters of the Russian occupation authority relocates to Kiev.
  • December 18 - Russia vetoes UNSC Resolution 1790, cutting short the mandate of the multinational force in Iraq - in response the U.S., Britain, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Iraq, and the UAE expel Russian diplomats and recall their own ambassadors from Moscow. The Iraqi government pledges to immediately enter negotiations with the U.S. government to establish a bilateral security pact to replace the mandate.
  • December 20 - Russia announces the establishment of three new governments carved out of Ukraine - the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv People's Republics. The territories are to hold a referendum on formally joining the Russian Federation within five months. Ukrainian officials in Romania issue a firey, unforgiving condemnation of the move, and western governments also offer stern rebuke.
  • December 22 - Ukrainian government officials establish a government-in-exile operating out of the Ukrainian embassy in London. The U.S. and UK affirm their continued recognition of the government, denouncing the Russian occupation and the creation of the autonomous republics as 'illegitimate and illegal.'
  • December 23 - In a joint press conference with senior NATO officials in Brussels, the president of Finland announces plans to bring Finland into the alliance, with the aim of integrating Finland's army into the NATO command structure by the end of 2008. The Russian foreign ministry condemns the move almost immediately.
  • December 25 - The Latvian parliament overwhelmingly votes in favor of reintroducing universal conscription - all males are expected to commit to two years of military service upon reaching age 18.
  • December 26 - Russia's Baltic fleet begins a large-scale combined air, naval, and sea exercise, involving over 25,000 Russian servicemen. A mock amphibious invasion is staged in Kaliningrad, an act the Polish see as a grave provocation.
  • December 27 - The Ukrainian provisional government announces that it will dually recognize Russian and Ukrainian as official languages, a largely symbolic move given that Ukraine's Russian speaking territories are now entirely out of its jurisdiction.


  • January 1 - Activists in Moscow mark the new year with massive protests in Red Square against the Russian occupation of Ukraine. Over 120,000 people are in attendance. The Kremlin, fearing a 'Color Revolution,' vows to crush the protests. Russian police and OMON troops are quickly dispatched to the square, surrounding protesters encamped in Red Square.
  • January 2 - The Russians initiate a brutal crackdown in Red Square. Protesters resist and fighting breaks out, continuing well into the next day. Twelve protesters and three Russian police officers are killed in the violence, and protest continue, with additional small protests cropping up all over Moscow and western Russia.
  • January 3 - Putin gives a speech to the State Duma blaming the west for the violence in Moscow, and announcing the establishment of a state of martial law in Moscow Oblast.
  • January 4 - The crackdown in Moscow continues, with the total death toll now reaching 35 people, including three police officers and one OMON soldier. Meanwhile, a Russian soldier is killed by a sniper outside Lviv, prompting house to house searches and raids across the city and surrounding area.
  • January 6 - Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Rougehad announces the permenat foward stationing of two more Arleigh-Burke class guided missile destroyers (USS Cole and USS McFaul) to U.S. Naval Station Rota in Spain.
  • January 22 - Stock markets plunge globally due to anxiety over U.S. economic prospects and rapidly growing tensions between Russia and the west.
  • August 27 - U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton receives the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States after Senator Barack Obama, her opponent, introduces a motion to nominate her by acclamation. Clinton had received 2,289 delegates (including superdelegates) over the course of the election, narrowly surpassing Obama's 2,130. Obama's public gesture of unity helps greatly to build consensus around Clinton's candidacy following the hotly contested primary.
  • October 13 - Two Infantry Brigade Combat Teams are withdrawn from Iraq, bringing U.S. troop levels to their lowest numbers since 2004 - security in Mosul and Anbar province begins to deteriorate, but U.S. forces in and around Baghdad remain strong.


  • January 1 - A Russian Delta IV class ballistic missile submarine in the North Atlantic launches its RM-29U Sineva ballistic missiles at major population centers, military installations, and ports on the U.S. eastern seaboard. (Russo-American Nuclear Exchange)



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