Err.... Kerry won Fairfax, by a fair margin, otl. Dean'd win handily too.
Not even Obama won Virginia Beach. Dean would have no chance there.
To win Virginia, and the ~132,000 votes it would have taken to give him it, he'd have campaigned in/around Richmond, Charlottesville, and the DC suburbs. That's where the Democratic voters mostly live.
Iowa is an easy flip of a few thousand votes. A single campaign stop more than Kerry could have been enough to win Dean the state.