Talk:Invasion of Czechoslovakia (Fall Grün)

From Alternative History

Done. Regards,
Realismadder 10:26, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Contents 1 Where is this text originally from? 2 Well Done 2.1 Re: Well Done 3 Epic

[edit] Where is this text originally from?

thanks, Jan128.139.226.34 12:17, 1 April 2009 (UTC)

Hello,

Which part, do you mean? The fictive elements of this Althist is my own work (spent several months writing this), while the historic parts are based on several sources, including web sites and Czech, German and English books on this subject (situation until the Munich Agreement).

Regards,

Realismadder 13:13, 1 April 2009 (UTC)

[edit] Well Done

You obviously worked hard on this and did a lot of research. I enjoyed reading it.

There are a couple of little details I take issue with at the end. You have WWII starting pretty much as per OTL and give some good reasons for even greater German success in Poland and France. I'm not so sure that things would go that well for Germany after this.

In the Polish and French capaigns in OTL 25% of Germany's tanks were Czech build. In this timeline all those tanks are either destroyed or in Polish hands. In addition there are the number of German tanks that were lost in the campaign. German industry was already at 100% and these losses mean that instead of enough tanks for 10 armored divisions in 1940 they may only have enough for 7.

In addition would the Germans be able to get a non-aggression pact with the Soviets after having fought directly against the Red Army. Without the non-aggression pact and the trade deals that supplied Germany with Soviet raw materials between the conquest of Poland and the invasion of France will look very different.

Just some thoughts.

Athos3 00:18, 3 June 2009 (UTC)

[edit] Re: Well Done

Thanks for commenting. I am glad you enjoyed it. And constructive criticism is always welcome.

• You got a point with the loss of German tanks and the lack of Czech tanks to replace them. It is unlikely that they would have as many tanks to equip 10 armoured divisions. A small possiblity is if they began a partial war industry in late 1938 or early 1939 due to the stalemate in Czechoslovakia, which in OTL was first introduced in 1943 (Total War).
  
  The experiences gained in the conflict in Czechoslovakia could prove vital to a success in Poland. After all, despite the speed of the German-Slovak conquest of Poland, the invasion was marked with several flaws, including the ineffectiveness of the light divisions, lack of communication between the different branches (despite being better than most nations on that time), and of course no combat experience. The experiences gained here were improved for the invasion of France in 1940.
  
  I would expect the experiences gained in Czechoslovakia would indeed have gained some leverage in terms of improved cooperation between the different branches, the light divisions would have been converted into armoured divisions, tactics would have been improved as well (note that the so-called Blitzkrieg doctrine was first used against the West in 1940, while the Wehrmacht's strategy against Poland was more inline with Vernichtungsgedanken, or a focus on envelopment to create pockets in broad-front annihilation). Thus, it is possible that the Germans would have learned from this and used their armoured units more independently against Poland in 1939 (much like against France in 1940 in OTL).
  
  In short: It is possible that the campaign against Poland could have been as successful as in OTL (experience, better coordination and tactics make up for loss of tanks), but I agree that a campaign against France would have been more difficult (even with the masses of problems the French, British had) due to the lack of equipment lost against Czechoslovakia and Poland. The campaign would perhaps have been delayed for some time (which, in turn, could mean Italy would have a [rather small] chance of imroving their armed forces before they enter the war.

• About the non-agression pact: Even if the USSR had fought a military conflict with Germany, it would, despite the size of the deployed troops, rather be in style of Fascist fighting the Soviet-supported Republicans in Spain (it is unlikely that the Soviets did NOT know who Franco was supported by). However, there are some possibilities that a German-Soviet treaty would have been signed despite of a more-or-less direct confrontation between them:
  • Some Soviet concern existed about the possibility that France and Britain might stay neutral in a war initiated by Germany, hoping that the warring states would wear each other out and put an end to both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.
  • Seeing that the French (and partially the British) had disregarded their obligations to come to Czechoslovakia’s aid against Germany, they would probably not count on support from Germany.
  • At least for the time being, neither party were economically, technologically (more or less) or politically (at least for Germany’s part) ready to engage in a total war against one another.
  • For Germany, it became necessary to have closer relations with the Soviet Union for economic reasons, as well as to prevent massive shortages for a number of key raw materials due to an expected British blockade in the event of war.
  • After the Munich agreement, the resulting increase for German military supply needs and Soviet demand for military machinery, talks between the two countries occurred from late 1938 to March 1939. The Soviet Third Five Year Plan required massive new infusions of technology and industrial equipment.
  • The “main” element behind the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was its economic section, but it is not unlikely that securing territory within their political sphere of influence was out of their interest.
  • Had Germany invaded Poland without an agreement with the Soviet Union, it is very likely that the USSR would have intervened nonetheless.

I will gladly discussing this issue further with you. You can help me writing a more realistic aftermath if you have the interest.

Until then, thank you for your constructive criticism.

Kindest regards,

Realismadder 01:17, 3 June 2009 (UTC)

[edit] Epic

This article is epic! Well done. Mitro 00:40, 3 June 2009 (UTC)

MIKEMAN85

Hi, very good article. But I think that youre mistake, when Polish start attack on CZE so I think that for USSR is most interesting use this against Poland and start attack to the West. I think it, bacause Stalin could (in this opportunity) take whole Eastern Poland or (maybe) capture Warsav. So Hitler feared from this must stop attack against CZE and send many division to the Poland for secure eastern Reich border....maybe some as partition of Poland in 1938 its possible, but i think that when USSR and Germany had a border (in this scenario) Stalin want attack to Berlin. With Wehrmacht in Czechoslovakian mountains could Red Army achieve strategic victory over Polish and German Army. And Czechoslovakian could defend them-self against Germany, but be under soviet pressure, and in Soviet sphere of influence.