Alternate History

Fourth North American War (Balkanization of North America)

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Fourth North American War
Part of the North American Wars
Date April 1, 1992 – December 14, 1995
Location Guatemala and Belize
Result Unification of Guatemala and Belize according to the Greenwich Agreements. Expulsion of all Mexicans and Hondurians from Guatemala. Massive civilian casualties for the Guatemalan faction and over a million refugees created (with all sides included).
  • Republic of Guatemala and Belize
  • Honduras
  • Belize


  • Mexican National Military
  • Mexican People's Army
  • Central American Union
  • Autonomous Republic of Peten
  • Honduras
  • Republic of Guatemala and Belize
  • AUSA
  • Axis Pact
  • Great Britain
  • United States
  • Confederate States of America
  • California
  • Mexico
~100 tanks
~200,000 infantry
~300 tanks
~70,000 infantry
600-700 tanks
120,000 infantry
Casualties and losses
31,270 soldiers killed
33,071 civilians killed
5,439 soldiers killed
2,163 civilians killed
20,649 soldiers killed
4,075 civilians kille

The Fourth North American War was an international armed conflict that took place in Guatemala and Belize between March 1992 and November 1995. The war involved several sides. According to the numerous Criminal Tribunal for Central America (CTCA) judgments the conflict involved Guatemala and the Central American Union (later just Mexico) as well as Honduras. According to an CTCA judgment, Mexico gave military and financial support to Mexican forces in Guatemala, which consisted of the Mexican People's Army (MPA) and the Mexican Natioal Military (MNM). Honduras gave military support to Hondurian forces of the self-proclaimed Hondurian Republic in Southern Guatemala. Guatemalan government forces were led by the Army of the Republic of Guatemala and Belize. These factions changed objectives and allegiances several times at various stages of the war.

There was long-standing debate as to whether the conflict was a civil war or a war of aggression. Guatemalans and many Hondurians claimed that the conflict was a war of Mexican and Hondurian aggression, while Mexicans often considered it a civil war between ethnic groups in Guatemala that spread to parts of Mexico, Belize, and Honduras.

Following the Jalapa and Monjas massacres, the AUSA intervened during the 1995 Operation Duty on Guard against the positions of the Mexican National Military, which internationalized the conflict, but only in its final stages. The war was brought to an end after the signing of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Guatmala and Belize in Paris on 14 December 1995. Peace negotiations were held in Greenwich, England, and were finalized on 21 December 1995. The accords are known as the Greenwich Agreement.

The most recent research places the number of killed people at around 100,000–110,000 and 1.8 million displaced, making it the most deadly of the four North American wars. The research from June 2007 has shown that most of the 97,207 documented casualties (civilians and soldiers) during Fourth North American War were Guatemalans (66%), followed by Mexicans (25%), Hondurians (8%) and a small number of others such as El Salvador or Nicaraguian peoples. Guatemalans also suffered massive civilian casualties (83%) compared to Mexicans (10%) and Hondurians (5%), which was often followed by systematic rape, especially in Guatemala's Peten region, by MNM forces (estimates of the numbers raped range from 20,000 to 50,000). At least 30 percent of the Guatemalan civilian victims were women and children.

According to a detailed 1995 report about the war made by the KGB, 90% of the war crimes of the Fourth North American War were committed by Mexicans. In 2005, the Russian Politburo passed a resolution declaring that "the Mexican policies of aggression and ethnic cleansing meet the terms defining genocide". According to legal experts, as of early 2008, 45 Mexicans, 12 Hondurians, and 4 Guatemalans were convicted of war crimes by the CTCA in connection with the Fourth North American War. Both Mexicans and Hondurians were indicted and convicted of systematic war crimes, while Guatemalans were indicted and convicted of individual ones. Some high ranking political leaders of Mexicans as well as Hondurians were convicted of war crimes, while some others are presently on trials at the CTCA. Genocide is the most serious war crime Mexicans were convicted of. Crimes against humanity, a charge second in gravity only to genocide, is the most serious war crime Hondurians were convicted of. Breaches of the Geneva Conventions is the most serious war crime Guatemalans were convicted of.

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