ODNI declassified assessment of "Russian activities and intentions in recent U.S. elections"
The United States Intelligence Community has concluded with high confidence that the Russian government interfered in the 2016 United States elections. An intelligence community assessment stated:
"Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the U.S. presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate President-elect Hillary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for Governor Chafee and Mr. Trump. We have high confidence in these judgments."
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), representing 17 intelligence agencies, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) jointly stated that Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and leaked its documents to WikiLeaks, founded by Julian Assange. In early January 2017, shortly before the inauguration of President-elect Clinton, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified before the Senate intelligence committee that Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news often promoted on social media. Six federal agencies have also been investigating possible links and financial ties between the Kremlin and Trump's associates, as well as associates of Ambassador Chafee, including his advisors Ray McGovern and Daniel Ellsberg.
On February 21st, 2017, President Clinton signed legislation to create a bi-partisan commission to investigate foreign interference in the 2016 elections. The commission is chaired by Avril Haines, Deputy National Security Advisor under President Barack Obama, and co-chaired by Condoleeza Rice, former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor for President George W. Bush.
Russian Involvement[]
President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, (2000-2008, 2012-2017)
Animosity between Putin and Clinton[]
As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton attempted to "reset" the relationship between Russia and the United States. She presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with a red button with the English word "reset" and the Roman alphabet transliteration of the Russian Cyrillic alphabet word перегрузка ("peregruzka".) It was intended that this would be the Russian word for "reset" but actually was the word for "overload."
Relations with Russia deteriorated in 2011, following mass protests against allegations of widespread fraud and corruption in the Russian legislative election results, which saw thousands injured or arrested. Putin, serving as Prime Minister at the time, said that the Secretary of State "set the tone for some opposition activists to act in accordance with a well-known scenario and in their own mercenary political interests."
Email Leaks[]
In June 2016, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) first stated that the Russian hacker groups Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear had penetrated their campaign servers and leaked private information via the Guccifer 2.0 online persona.
Donald Trump's tweet on 7/27/2016
On July 22th, 2016, WikiLeaks released approximately 20,000 emails sent from or received by DNC personnel. Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned as Chair of the DNC following WikiLeaks releases suggesting collusion against the presidential campaigns of Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, and Lincoln Chafee. A few days later, at a televised news conference, Trump invited Russia to hack and release Clinton's deleted emails from her private server during her tenure in the State Department, saying "Russia: If you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing". Trump's comments were condemned by the press and political figures, including fellow Republicans; he later backtracked and claimed that he had only been speaking sarcastically.
CIA Director André Carson
On October 7th, 2016, WikiLeaks started releasing series of emails and documents sent from or received by Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, which continued on a daily basis until Election Day. In a news conference in April, Podesta blamed Russia for hacking into his email and claimed the leaks had "distorted" election results.
In April 2017, CIA Director André Carson stated:
"I don't think there's any denying that Moscow had a role in the hacking. We know that they're responsible for the hacking of the DNC, and as suspected, they've been leaking information through intermediaries, i.e. Wikileaks. I think it's clear that Russia was interested in raising questions about the validity of the electoral system and denigrating Mrs. Clinton's candidacy."
Social Media[]
A key method of Russian interference used the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a Kremlin-linked troll farm, to wage "a social media campaign that favored presidential candidate Donald J. Trump and disparaged presidential candidate Hillary Clinton". The Internet Research Agency also sought to "provoke and amplify political and social discord in the United States".
By February 2016, internal IRA documents showed an order to support the candidacies of Donald Trump, Lincoln Chafee, and Bernie Sanders, while IRA members were to "use any opportunity to criticize" Hillary Clinton and the rest of the candidates. From June 2016, the IRA organized election rallies in the U.S. "often promoting" Trump's campaign while "opposing" Clinton's campaign. The IRA posed as Americans, hiding their Russian background, while asking Trump campaign members for campaign buttons, flyers, and posters for the rallies.
Russian use of social media to disseminate propaganda content was broad in its scope; Facebook and Twitter were used, but also Reddit, Tumblr, Pinterest, Medium, YouTube, Vine, and Google+. Instagram was by far the most used platform - an estimated 20 million users engaged approximately 187 million times with IRA content; in comparison, Facebook itself saw 76.5 million engagements that reached approximately 126 million people.
U.S. Intelligence Analysis[]
October 2016 ODNI / DHS Joint Statement[]
In a joint statement on October 7th, 2016, the DHS and ODNI expressed high confidence that Russia had interfered in the presidential election by stealing emails from politicians and U.S. groups and publicizing the information. Their report stated:
"The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities."
FBI Inquiries[]
FBI Director James Comey
On March 20th, 2017, during public testimony to the House Intelligence Committee, FBI Director James Comey confirmed the existence of an FBI investigation into Russian interference and links to the Trump and Chafee campaigns, including the question of whether there had been any coordination between the campaigns and the Russians. He further stated that:
"Putin hated Secretary Clinton so much that he had a clear preference for people running against Secretary Clinton."
Comey's testimony took place on the same day that formal diplomatic recognition of the appointment of Governor Chafee as Ambassador to the OAS was received from the administration of OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro.
U.S. Government Response[]
Obama Administration[]
Former U.S. President Barack Obama (2009-2017)
In September 2016, President Obama and Vladimir Putin had a discussion about cybersecurity, which took place alongside the then-ongoing G20 summit in China. Obama made his views known on cyber security matters between the U.S. and Russia, and later said that Russian hacking stopped after his warning to Putin. One month after their discussion, however, the email leaks from the DNC attack had not ceased, and President Obama decided to contact Putin via the Moscow–Washington hotline - commonly known as the "red phone" - at the end of October. Obama emphasized the gravity of the situation by telling Putin that "International law, including the law for armed conflict, applies to actions in cyberspace. We will hold Russia to those standards."
Sanctions Imposed on Russia[]
On December 29th, 2016, the Obama administration announced a series of punitive measures against Russia. Sanctions were imposed on four top officials of the GRU, and 35 Russian diplomats suspected of spying, declared persona non grata, and ordered to leave the country within 72 hours. The following day, two waterfront compounds used as retreats by families of Russian embassy personnel were shut down by the Obama administration, citing spying activities: one in Upper Brookville, New York, and the other in Centreville, Maryland.
Clinton Administration[]
In February of 2017, President Clinton signed legislation to create a bi-partisan commission to investigate foreign interference in the 2016 elections.
In April, the Senate overwhelmingly passed a bill by a vote of 98-2 that would step up sanctions against Iran and Russia, including new sanctions against Moscow, citing its interference in the 2016 presidential election and its continued involvement in the wars in Ukraine and Syria. Specifically, the bill targeted Russia’s intelligence, defense, energy, metals, mining, and railway sectors.
Cybersecurity[]
In March 2017, Secretary of Homeland Security Martin O'Malley announced the end of Kapersky Lab from United States security protection. In the same month, election infrastructure, such as voting machines, were declared part of the nation's critical infrastructure, on par with banking and the electrical grid.
Secretary of State Gary Locke, Secretary O'Malley, and Ambassador to NATO Leon Panetta have worked to institute NATO's Committee on Cyber Security, effective in January of 2018. The Committee aims to defend member nations against cyberattacks, and coordinate effective responses, focusing on protecting electoral and critical information systems.
Legislation[]
The Clinton administration has signed two major bills to prevent further electoral meddling from Russia and other foreign adversaries: the Honest Ads Act, which regulates political advertisements the same as broadcast tv and radio and ban ad purchases by foreign nationals, and the Secure Elections Act, which provides states and localities funding to improve their voting systems and create a hard paper record of every vote.
Indictments[]
On February 16th, 2018, the Justice Department indicted 13 Russian people and 3 Russian companies, accusing them of conspiring to interfere with “US political and electoral processes, including the presidential election of 2016.”
According to the indictment, the Internet Research Agency, a Russian "troll farm" that was part of Project Lakhta, had a monthly budget of $1.2 million. Their initial goal was to sow discord and confusion among U.S. voters, before focusing on attacking then-candidate Clinton and supporting her election rivals, particularly Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Lincoln Chafee, and Jill Stein. Additionally, the IRA was directed to attack Donald Trump's rivals for the Republican nomination, specifically mentioning Bobby Jindal and Marco Rubio.
Haines-Rice Commission[]
Avril Haines, Chair
Condoleeza Rice, Vice-Chair
On February 21st, 2017, Congress passed and President Clinton signed legislation creating the National Commission on Foreign Interference in United States Elections, informally known as the Haines-Rice Commission. The commission consists of five Democrats and five Republicans. It is chaired by Avril Haines, Deputy National Security Advisor under President Barack Obama, and co-chaired by Condoleeza Rice, former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor for President George W. Bush.
The original ten members of the commission included:
- Avril Haines (Chair) - Democrat, former Deputy National Security Advisor and former Deputy Director of the CIA
- Condoleeza Rice (Vice-Chair) - Republican, former Secretary of State and former National Security Advisor
- Viet Dinh - Republican, former Assistant Attorney General
- Christopher Kojm - Democrat, former Chair of the National Intelligence Council and Deputy Director of the 9/11 Commission
- Jon Kyl - Republican, former United States Senator from Arizona
- John Lehman - Republican, former Secretary of the Navy and member of the 9/11 Commission
- William J. Lynn III - Democrat, former Deputy Secretary of Defense
- Lisa Monaco - Democrat, former U.S. Homeland Security Advisor
- Richard Painter - Republican, former chief ethics lawyer for the George W. Bush White House
- Deval Patrick - Democrat, former Governor of Massachusetts
In March 2018, Painter resigned from the commission and announced that he was forming an exploratory committee to run for the United States Senate from Minnesota, announcing a month later that he would run as a Libertarian (Minnesota Libertarian-Independence) candidate. Painter was replaced by C. Boyden Gray, White House Counsel during the George H W Bush administration and Ambassador to the European Union under the George W. Bush administration.
Patrick Fitzgerald, former United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, was selected as the Executive Director of the commission.
Links between the Trump Campaign and Russian Officials[]
Paul Manafort[]
Paul Manafort
Paul Manafort, who served as Donald Trump's second campaign chairman, traveled to Moscow at least 18 times between 2004-2011, while he served as a top adviser to ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych and his pro-Russia Party of Regions. Manafort resigned as Trump's campaign chairman shortly after The New York Times reported that the Party of Regions had earmarked him $12.7 million for his work between 2007 and 2012.
In October 2017, a federal grand jury indicted Manafort and his longtime business associate Rick Gates, on twelve counts, including money laundering, tax fraud, and failing to register as foreign agents.
In January 2017, on the eve of the presidential inauguration, it was reported that Manafort was under active investigation by multiple federal agencies including the CIA, the NSA, the FBI, the Director of National Intelligence, and the financial crimes unit of the Treasury Department; the investigations were based on intercepted Russian communications as well as financial transactions. It was later confirmed that Manafort was wiretapped by the FBI beginning in 2014, before Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President of United States.
On July 26th, 2017, the day after Manafort's Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing and the morning of his planned hearing before the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, FBI agents conducted a "no-knock" pre-dawn raid on Manafort's Alexandria, Virginia home, using a search warrant to seize documents and other materials, in regard to the Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Manafort was indicted for obstruction of justice on June 8th, 2018. The charges involve allegations that Manafort attempted to convince others to lie about an undisclosed lobbying effort on behalf of Ukraine’s former pro-Russian government; among them, the indictment alleges that Manafort and Russian national and Manafort aide Konstantin Kilimnik “knowingly and intentionally attempted to corruptly persuade” two people “with intent to influence, delay, and prevent the testimony of any person in an official proceeding.”
On February 8th, 2019, Paul Manafort was sentenced to 47 months in prison by Judge T.S. Ellis, of the Eastern District of Virginia, a far lower sentence than the recommended length of 19 to 25 years.
George Papadopolous[]
George Papadopoulous
In March 2016, Donald Trump named George Papadopoulos, then an energy consultant, as a foreign policy advisor to his campaign. Shortly thereafter, Papadopoulos was approached by London-based Professor Joseph Mifsud, who told him the Russians had "dirt" on Hillary Clinton in the form of "thousands of emails."
In May 2016 at a London wine bar, after a night of heavy drinking, Papadopoulos informed the Australian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, Alexander Downer, that Russia was in possession of "dirt" on Hillary Clinton in the form of hacked DNC emails. Following the publication of the emails by Wikileaks in July, the Australian government told the FBI about Papadopoulos' revelation, launching the FBI's counterintelligence investigation into the Trump campaign.
Papadopoulos' main activity during the campaign was attempting, unsuccessfully, to set up meetings between Russian officials and Trump campaign officials, including a potential meeting between Trump and Vladamir Putin himself. To this end, he communicated with multiple Trump campaign officials including campaign managers Corey Lewandowski and Paul Manafort, as well as Sam Clovis and Rick Gates.
On October 5th, he pleaded guilty to one felony count of making false statements to FBI agents relating to contacts he had with agents of the Russian government while working for the Trump campaign.
Carter Page[]
Energy consultant Carter Page was one of the five people announced as part of Donald Trump's foreign policy team in March of 2016, alongside Papadopoulos.
During more than six hours of sworn testimony before the House Intelligence Committee last Thursday, which he attended without a lawyer, Page professed his complete innocence, though confirmed memos he had written to key campaign staffers. One such memo stated:
“In a private conversation, [Deputy Prime Minister Arkady] Dvorkovich expressed strong support for Mr. Trump and a desire to work together toward devising better solutions in response to the vast range of current international problems.”
A second memo, written on July to two campaign staffers, Page further stated:
“I’ll send you guys a readout soon regarding some incredible insights and outreach I’ve received from a few Russian legislators and senior members of the Presidential administration here.”
In 2013, Page had met with Viktor Podobnyy - then a junior attaché at the Russian Permanent Mission to the United Nations - at an energy conference and provided him with documents on the U.S. energy industry. Podobnyy was later charged with spying, but was protected from prosecution by diplomatic immunity.
Veselnitskaya Meeting[]
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Trump Tower, Manhattan.
On June 9th, 2016, a meeting was held in Trump Tower in Manhattan between three senior members of the Donald Trump presidential campaign – Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, and campaign manager Paul Manafort – and at least five other people, including Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya. The meeting was arranged by publicist and long-time Trump acquantiance, Rob Goldstone on behalf of his client, singer-songwriter Emin Agalarov.
On July 8th, 2017, The New York Times first reported the meeting with "a Russian lawyer who has connections to the Kremlin" - later identified as Veselnitskaya - arranged by Trump Jr. and including Kushner and Manafort. The information was attributed to "people familiar with the documents" and confirmed by representatives of Trump Jr. and Kushner. Just minutes before the Times published its report, Trump Jr. published three pages of emails between himself and Goldstone, in which the latter described the Russian government's support for the Donald Trump campaign. Trump Jr. later released a statement saying the June 2016 meeting had been a "short introductory meeting" about adoption and "not a campaign issue".
The following day, however, Trump Jr. released a statement saying "I was asked to have a meeting by an acquaintance I knew from the 2013 Miss Universe pageant with an individual who I was told might have information helpful to the campaign."
Links between the Chafee Campaign and Russian Officials[]
Chafee Trip to Moscow[]
See Also: Lincoln Chafee International Trips, 2016 (The More Things Changed)
Throughout March and April 2016, Rhode Island Governor and Democratic presidential candidate Lincoln Chafee underwent a series of trade missions abroad to bolster his foreign policy-oriented campaign.
Chafee traveled to Moscow on April 12th, where he met with Vladimir Chernov, the Chief of the Presidential Directorate for Interregional Relations and Cultural Contacts with Foreign Countries. Upon mounting evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election, Chafee pledged to cooperate fully with investigators and stated:
"I met with Chernov to discuss the history of our two nations, promote a common pursuit of peace through cultural exchange, and look for opportunities abroad for the citizens of Rhode Island. There was no open line of communication between my campaign and the Russian government."
Ray McGovern[]
Former CIA analyst and Chafee campaign advisor Ray McGovern.
Former CIA analyst and Chafee campaign advisor Ray McGovern had attended a gala in Moscow hosted by the state owned media outlet Russia Today - which serves as a propaganda outlet for the Russian government - where he criticized U.S. policy towards Russia. Also in attendance were Trump campaign advisor Michael Flynn and 2016 Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
McGovern, who had accompanied Chafee on his trip to Moscow, had frequently been critical of what he termed "hysteria" over Russian interference in the 2016 election. On March 24, 2017, McGovern agreed to testify before the House Intelligence Committee regarding their investigation into Russia. In his testimony, McGovern denied any interference in the 2016 elections and turned blame to domestic agencies, stating:
"It is altogether possible that the hacking attributed to Russia was actually one of several “active measures” undertaken by a cabal consisting of the CIA, FBI, NSA and Director Clapper."
Due to public pressure, McGovern was eventually forced to resign from his position on the board of directors for the 501(c)(4) organization Not by a Mile.
Daniel Ellsberg[]
Daniel Ellsberg, a former U.S. military analyst who released the top secret Pentagon Papers in 1971, had served as a key intelligence and national security policy advisor to the Chafee campaign.
On May 15th, 2017, Ellsberg signed a letter by the Courage Foundation to President Clinton and Attorney General Jennifer Granholm asking them to drop an investigation into Wikileaks, the online publication by which many of the leaked classified documents were released. Ellsberg has repeatedly drawn similarities between himself when he released the Pentagon Papers, and Julian Assange, characterizing the allegations of Wikileaks acting as an arm of Russian intelligence as "misleading."
Stephen Kinzer[]
Stephen Kinzer
Stephen Kinzer is an American author, journalist, and academic; he served as Senior Fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. Chafee had appointed him the first Director of International Partnerships in the Governor's office, where he served from 2014-2015. During Chafee's presidential campaign, Kinzer served as an informal advisor on foreign policy and national security issues, frequently speaking with the candidate and his official foreign policy team.
Proposed Russian Consulate in Rhode Island[]
On November 29th, 2018, the Boston Globe published an exposé detailing previously undisclosed efforts by the Kremlin to establish a Russian consulate in Providence, Rhode Island, from 2014-2016, including while then-Governor Chafee was running for President.
Then-Director of International Partnerships, Stephen Kinzer, was tasked with representing the governor and state to all foreign countries and international organizations, as well as coordinating the governor’s official trade missions overseas, including these trips. Prior to the planning of the missions, Kinzer met with Russian nationals and officials, to discuss the possibility of opening a Russian consulate in Providence, Rhode Island's capital and largest city, or in Warwick, the second-largest city in the state and where Chafee had previously served as Mayor.
By December 2018, Kinzer was under investigation by the Rhode Island Ethics Commission, which additionally referred his case to the FBI.
Kinzer gave eight hours of public, televised testimony before the House Select Committee in February 2019, in which he testified that he saw nothing wrong with the project, but admitted that he failed to contact either the State Department or the Rhode Island Ethics Commission. When asked about other people within the Chafee campaign and administration, Kinzer specifically pointed to advisors Jonathan Stevens and Ray McGovern. In a heated exchange with Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH), who asked Kinzer if he believed that his actions could have violated campaign contribution laws, Kinzer argued that the plans for the proposed consulate preceded the Chafee presidential campaign.
In April 2019, Kinzer was subject to a $40,000 fine from the Rhode Island Ethics Commission on two violations, from a maximum possible fine of $50,000. In September 2019, he was charged on violating campaign contribution laws and real estate laws; the cases were settled out of court in March 2020 for an undisclosed sum. In July 2021, it was reported that Kinzer had been chosen to serve as a senior advisor to Homeland Security Advisor Tulsi Gabbard, who herself had been a prominent supporter of Chafee's campaign.
Links between the Trump and Chafee Campaigns[]
Richard Burt[]
Former Ambassador Richard Burt
Richard Burt, the former U.S. Ambassador to Germany during the Reagan administration and chief negotiator for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) during the George H W Bush administration, was initially an informal foreign policy advisor to the presidential campaign of Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, before Paul formally announced his candidacy. By the time the campaign started, however, Burt was in contact with the Chafee campaign, personally citing his growing doubts about Paul's foreign policy plans.
In the first two quarters of 2016, Burt's firm received $365,000 for work he and a business partner did to lobby for Nord Stream II, an expansion of the Nord Stream pipeline, owned by Gazprom, an oil company controlled by the Russian government.
Following the failure of the Chafee campaign to win the Democratic nomination, Burt signed on as an advisor to the Trump campaign, helping to write the candidate's first major foreign policy address, pushing him to take a less interventionist approach to world affairs. Trump’s speech on April 27th - the same day that Governor Chafee formally suspended his campaign - sounded those themes and called for greater cooperation with Russia.
Commentary and Reactions[]
Donald Trump[]
Prior to his presidential run, Donald Trump made statements to Fox News in 2014 in which he agreed with an assessment by FBI director James Comey about hacking against the U.S. by Russia and China, calling it a "big problem." By 2015 and 2016, however, he no longer agreed with this conclusion.
During the first presidential debate between him and Clinton, in September, Trump said he doubted whether anyone knew who hacked the DNC, disputed Russian interference, and claimed that the hacking could have been done by "a 400-lb person" sitting on their bed. During the second debate, Trump said there might not have been hacking at all and questioned why Russia should be held responsible. During the third debate, Trump rejected Clinton's claim that Putin favored Trump, claiming that his opponent was Putin's "puppet" and not himself.
Trump is the current owner of the Trump News Network, which has promoted Trump's personal view that the investigations into Russian interference were a "witch-hunt" and a "total hoax."
Intelligence Community[]
Former Indiana Congressman and Director of the CIA André Carson stated "I don't think there's any denying that Moscow had a role in the hacking." In December 2017, the CIA completed its own assessment of the interference and released a redacted public version.
Ray Mabus, Director of National Intelligence and former Secretary of the Navy, similarly stated his concerns, stating "I want to know what the Russian intelligence services had to do with our democracy."