Alternate History

Energy Crisis 1980

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While energy is supposed to be sustainable, developing markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia causes energy to peak early. (Please note: the oil reserves have been made up partially.)  

The Initial Crisis

1967: US oil consumption hits 10,000,000 barrels, due to "Calm Explotion" policies it only produces 6,000,000 barrels itself, 4,000,000 of them from Alaska and 1,000,000 from East Texas, and 1,000,000 from the Gulf of Mexico. The rest comes from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Algeria form the World Petroleum Exporters' Org. South Africa's oil need hits over 2,000,000, mainly from Angola and Rep. of Congo. The total African need is over 9,000,000 barrels. North Sea oil and gas is discovered, 600,000 barrels start churning out to Britain and Norway. It is expected to churn out 9,000,000 barrels at its peak. In Africa, oil production is reaching some 10,000,000 barrels. Natural gas production is the USA is high, topping 55,000,000,000 cu m daily. Oil and gas production is going well, and Asian oil is reaching 7,000,000 barrels. Europe is the biggest market of oil, with daily needs of close to 20 million.

1968: US markets develop. The 1970s Boom starts as heavy industry and banking boom at the same time, but farming shrinks considerably. American need of oil soars. Another 6,000,000 barrels are needed. In Europe, oil need is growing immensely. Britain alone requires at least 9,000,000 barrels. North Sea production is increasing by 10,000 oil barrels monthly, and by the end of the year the rate has acclerated to 25,000 per 15 days. The new WPEO attracts a number of countries, like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, and Qatar join in the Middle East. Nigeria and Angola join as well. The Soviet Union launches a surprise strike into Turkey, Iraq and Afghanistan and the USA fights a limited war. This quickens the Soviet Union's downfall. The three states now are under American control. In Asia, Indonesia, India, Thailand and the Philippines are identified as the "Rising Four", China, Burma, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Taiwan, and Nepal are identified as the "Asian Eight". They all require a lot of oil, as do the "the West inside Asia" states of Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, the the Persian Gulf are the main oil states/regions; Asia will become a net importer soon. Coal supply is growing due to the belief of "Energy peak? Not In My Century" (NIMCE). NIMCE is common among politicians. Bay of Guinea oil is increasing, as is North African and Angolan oil. The Middle East oil has stabilised considerably, in Latin America Bolivia, Brazil and others are going against Venezuela and opening up in general. Gas production is still increasing.

1969: Oil is now increasing. In the North Sea, the daily production is over 3,000,000 barrels. In Asia, another term is used: "The Late Four" comprising of North Korea, Mongolia, Bhutan, Brunei, which are the latest states to develop. These various groupings are actually true: Thailand and Indonesia have large economies, and India has risen to have the biggest regional economy. The Philippines has democratised, and now boasts the 7th largest economy. The Asian Eight have generally grown. Gulf Oil Company is founded by Saudi Arabia and Oman. The USA asks for it to be made public in Dubai, Istanbul and Tehran trading centers. Americans then buy a lot of its shares (15%). It is in control of some oil fields in Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, including the Ghawar and Burgan fields. However it is actually directed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Iraq, all major shareholders, and is conservative is its policies. Saudi production is rising to 7,890,000 bbl/daily. Libya declares itself a "reserve for energy", and refuses to go beyond production of 1,200,000 bbl/day.The WPEO is very attractive to Libya, Gabon and Mexico so they joint. Mexico signs a deal with Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago, Honduras and Nicaragua to exploit Gulf of Mexico oil. These five states are known as the Five Barrels, despite Honduras' lack of energy. Together, they help to pump out over 1,867,000 barrels of oil. Mexico owns  40% of the profits, T and T 20%, Honduras 15%, Nicaragua 15% and Cuba %.

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