Chinese history runs much the same as *here* for the first few decades after the POD.
The Manchurian invasion took place right on schedule in 1644. Early Qing rule was identical to *here*. China begins to diverge in 1661.
In 1661, Zheng Chenggong, a Ming loyalist, established his ruling in Taiwan and intended to use it as a base for defeating the Qing dynasty. The Dutch, a major trade partner of Japan, requested that the Japanese defend them. But Zheng Chenggong defeated the Dutch.