In 1913, Italy was allied with Austria-Hungary and Germany. However, scared, Italy left the Central Powers in 1914, and in 1915, joined the Allies. What if Italy hadn't done that? This timeline evaluates that POD and another one, in which the Germans choose Switzerland and Luxembourg as centers of the Schlieffen plan instead of Belgium.
Summary[]
Start of the War[]
In 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand is shot in the Bosnian city of Sarajevo, currently part of Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary sends an ultimatum to Serbia, declaring the killer to be punished and Austrian troops to patrol the Serbian streets. Serbia's answer is not what Austria expected.
On July 28, 1914, Austria declared war upon Serbia. Germany followed, mobilizing the 30th and declaring war upon Russia on the 1st of August. France mobilizes the same day, and on August 3, Victor Emmanuel III of Italy sends a note to the German and Austrian leaders declaring "to expect full help from Italy". Italy mobilized on the 4th of August, and on the 5th declared war upon France. The next day, Italian troops were heading towards Nice, while Germany decides to use a plan called the "Schlieffen Plan", in which the German troops would pass through Luxembourg and Switzerland instead of Belgium, which was the plan, because Britain had sent an advertence towards Germany reading that Belgium had to be neutral in the war or Britain would interfere.
The Scheifflen Plan (August of 1914)[]
Expecting Russia to take at least three weeks to mobilize their gigantic army, the German count Alfred Von Schlieffen planned Germany's and Italy's armies to march through Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium (the Belgium idea was dropped) and western Italy to reach Lyon, Marseilles, Nice, Provence, and Paris within two weeks and make France surrender. Then the Germans would go to the Russian front in the third week. The German kaiser also told the Austrian emperor to protect the Eastern border in case the Russians were mobilized by now or would mobilize soon. What they didn't know is that the Russians were mobilized by the time of the declaration of war, due to several revolts and the Tunguska Event, which had burnt an entire Siberian town to the ground and, because nobody knew what had happened, had placed the Russian nation on full alert.
Germany declared war on Switzerland on the Seventh on August, and on Luxembourg on the Eighth. Luxembourg had been easily occupied, and resigned the 9th of August.
In Italy, the troops had easily advanced through the territories east of the Rhone. Nice and Avignon had been occupied, while Lyon was laid under siege. Several divisions had advanced towards a stalemate near Marseilles, where a powerful French army had been entrenched.
Switzerland had defended easily during the first ten days, due to the many deep ravines and mountains. However, Zürich, Bern and Geneva had all fallen by the Eighteenth. Germany attacked through Italian-Occupied France, finally reaching Metz and besieging the Maginot line on the Twentieth.
During the time, Britain continued strengthening, however, it didn't invade Germany.
When the Battle of Köninsberg occurred, German troops were laying siege to Paris, while Italians have conquered Vichy, Bordeaux, Charentes, and were besieging Poitiers. The French government sued for peace. Germany signed a treaty in which Bretagne would be an independent nation, Italy would get the lands east of the Rhone, Corsica and Lyon, and Germany would occupy a strip of land west of Alsace. The French government accepts.
Eastern Border (Late August, 1914)[]
The first Russian troops appeared at Galicia, the northeastern Austrian border, on the Twenty-first. Small skirmishes started during the day, being mostly Austrian defeats.
On the Twenty-second, Russia launched a great offensive against East Prussia, effectively destroying the northernmost Austrian army at Köninsberg after a large fight.
On the first of September, Russia was advancing through East Prussia and German Poland, menacing Danzig. The German army, surprised by the quick mobilization of Russia, are taken aback. The Germans would not have enough time to arrive upon Danzig, and calculations showed that the Russian army would have arrived at Berlin by the time the German army arrived. The Italians were equally helpless, as they would take at least twice the time to arrive upon Danzig, thanks for them being further south and the rail/transport system being less efficient. The Austro-Hungarian army was the only one which could save the Triple Alliance (the Central Powers), so, near Dresden, it massed all of it's former armies and marched north onto Danzig.
The Austrian army faced the Russian one in a large plain near Danzig. Although both armies suffered severe losses, it was the Austrian who ended up victorious.
However, during this time, the Russians had had enough. Making new reforms so that the Russian Empire didn't rebel and the peasants were on the monarchy's side, the Russians approached the Ottoman Empire (which was on its deathbed) and, with a series of intelligence attack and spying, staged a coup d'etat. The new government declared war upon Germany and Italy. The Russians did similar things in Romania and Bulgaria.
As the time passed, it was obvious that the Russians were trying to surround the Central Powers, they approached the remaining Balkans. As the Austrians formally annexed Serbia, the Italians forced Greece, Albania and Montenegro into joining the Central Powers.
Wars in the Balkan and Africa (1915)[]
This led to the Third Balkan War, wherein the Russians, Bulgarians, Turks and Romanians battled the Greeks, Montenegrins, Albanians and Italians in the Balkans. An Austrian army was also dispatched. In spite of the numerical advantage held by the Central Powers, the situation was far from optimal. This was attributed largely to the forced admission of Albania, Montenegro and Greece to the Central Powers by Italy. While Greece made it its goal to recapture the territories of the former Eastern Roman Empire, Albania had practically nothing to gain from this alliance and Montenegro was forced to switch sides, having to assist the nations they started off fighting. Italian promises of economic support, military protection and territorial compensation failed to generate enthousiasm in either country. Montenegrin and Albanian soldiers, void of morale, contributed little to the war effort.
The real action was henced focused almost solely on Austria, Italy and Greece against Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, which proved to be a disaster for the Central Powers — especially Austria. In addition, the Allies were further backed up by the Portuguese Republic, which had declared war against Germany as a result of border skirmishes in Angola; this brought the war to Africa. On the Eastern Front, Germany and Austria fared noticeably better than on the Balkan Front; after initially failing to capture Prasnych, the later Gorlice–Tarnów Offensive of May 1915 forced the Russians into the Great Retreat, leading to the capture of the Baltic states and much of Ukraine and Belarus.
The Balkan Front got progressively worse for the Central Powers. Turkey had repelled all of Greece's attempts to take Thrace, and with help from Bulgaria, directly invaded Greece proper by the autumn of 1915. Constantine I's popularity began dropping considerably, and anti-German sentiment began rising up in Greece, as well as in Albania, severly endagering the positions of King Constantine I of Greece and Prince Vilhelm I of Albania. Meanwhile, Romania and Russia had overrun Serbia and Hungary, with the Austrian army forced in retreat itself by the end of the year.
In Africa, Germany had invaded Angola from within Namibia. Portugal managed to defend itself quite well, denying the Germans their much-needed advance.
The breaking point (Early 1916)[]
By March of 1916, the Allies forced a breakthrough in Hungary; Nagyvárad fell in that month, allowing Romania and Russia to threaten Debrecen and Szolnok. The capture of those cities would open up a direct route to Budapest. Austria's inability to properly defend the Lands of Saint Stephen brought Hungarian loyalty to the Empire at an all-time low; many began calling for Hungary to sue for a seperate peace and secede from Austria using Russian help. Furthermore, earlier in January, Bulgarian and Russian troops had reached Montenegro after decisively defeating Austria in Macedonia. Upon losing the Battle of Berene, Montenegro announced its decision to surrender unconditionally; meanwhile, a revolution in Albania forced Vilhelm, to abdicate and leave the country; as a German noble, he wanted to support the Germans in their cause, but his efforts enjoyed no national support. Pesë Shtylla, a newly founded Islamist movement in Albania, overthrew the government of the Principality and installed Allmir Frasheri as the Sultan of Albania, who immediately declared neutrality.
In response to the Montenegrin capitulation, Italy and Austria jointly invaded and occupied Montenegro; however, Austria's role in the campaign further weakened its position in Hungary, where Budapest was now exposed to the invaders. Fed up with the incompetent Austrian leadership, Hungary declared its independence in May of 1916, and requested to join the Allies. In response, Austria had to refocus its troops on the Hungarian front, pulling back many units from Eastern Europe. This proved to be the nail in Austria's coffin — several of the redeployed units did not reach Hungary in time or were intercepted by Allied forces. Finally, after Thessaloniki was once again lost, the Greeks overthrew Constantine I, and, citing refusal to further be led by anyone of German blood, elected Eleftherios Venizelos, their Prime Minister, as their new King.
In the Eastern Front, however, the Central Powers still had the upper hand. The Russians were able to recapture significant swathes of land due to the mortifying Austrian military situation, but the Germans would later recapture much of this territory with the Summer Offensive of 1916, partially easened by the Lithuanians, Latvians, Livonians, Estonians, Poles, Ukrainians and Belarusians directly supporting the Germans in hopes of independence.
The endgame (Autumn 1916)[]
Near the fall of 1916, the Balkan Front was on the verge of collapse for the Central Powers. Unrest in Austria was at an all-time high; its poor performance incited rebellions all over the country, with much of the populace having lost faith in the government. On 14 September 1916, the situation collapsed completely after Austrian Prime Minister Karl von Stürgkh was assassinated by Austrian revolutionaries, who wanted Austria's involvement in the war to end. Hungarian troops were now approaching Vienna itself, easened by the decisive defeat of a combined German-Italian expeditionary force by the Allies a few weeks before, and rebellions broke out in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Czechia and elsewhere. By 19 September, the Austrian government had collapsed, and Hungarian troops entered Vienna, where they officially forced Franz Joseph to abdicate. Following the total collapse of the Empire, Italy immediately invaded its southern provinces, while Germany occupied Austria proper and battled the Russian-backed Slovak and Czech Republics.
Recognizing the need to stop the Allies here and now, Italy, Germany and their newly established client states in Eastern Europe initiated one final push to defeat the Allies. By November of that year, the Central Powers had battled the Allies to a standstill in the Balkan; Friulia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Montenegro were firmly in Central hands, but they were unable to advance to Hungary, Greece, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria or Turkey, which all remained within the Russian sphere of influence. However, total Central victory was cemented at the Eastern Front, where the Germans overran Czechia and Slovakia and successfully pushed the Russians outside of Ukraine, Belarus, Poland and the Baltics. Finally, by December of 1916, the Germans began to approach Petrograd from Estonia. Despite Nicholas II's best efforts to maintain his popularity, the Russian populace had grown tired of him, considering him as militarily and politically incompetent. Finally, on 7 December, the Russian military staged a coup against Nicholas and forced him to abdicate. With no other options left, Nicholas abdicated in favour of Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich. His final act before abdicating was to transfer more power to the Duma, hoping to quash anti-tsarist sentiment that way and secure Michael's position. Upon his accession on 9 December, Michael arranged an armistice with Germany. The powerful position of Hungary, Romania and Russia's allies in the Balkan prevented Central incursions into the region.
This left Portugal as the only country still fighting in the war. With the war in Europe over, Germany could commit all of its troops to Angola and Mozambique, and was able to use its navy to destroy the Portuguese armadas. Recognizing the futility of continuing the war, the Portuguese government agreed to sue for peace on December 17, ending the Great War.
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