The 2010 WCRB report on the Future Geopolitical Outlook is a WCRB report on the projected geopolitical outlook of the world for the next fifty years. It is meant to serve as a guide for WCRB officials and world leaders.
With the collapse of the United States and the Soviet Union being reduced to a rump states, a power vacuum exists. Recently different nations and alliances have attempted to fill this vacuum, and the relationships between them could affect whether this world will experience another Doomsday.
Commonwealth of Australia and New Zealand
South American Confederation
The continent of South America was a battlefield of the Cold War. Many democratically elected governments were overthrown or displaced by United States-aligned military dictatorships in the 1960s and 1970s. After Doomsday, however, to continent began a transformation into an economic powerhouse to replace the destroyed Western democracies. Throughout the last decade, South American countries have experienced significant economic growth, which can be seen in many of these countries with the construction of new skyscrapers and also transportation systems. Meanwhile the experimental computer network known as "Red Mundial de Communicacion" (REMUNDO), as astounded computer specialists the world over with its potential to change information sharing. Since Doomsday, a wave of liberal democratization has swept the continent, and democratic rule is widespread now. Nonetheless, allegations of corruption are still very common, and several countries have developed crises which have forced the resignation of their governments, although, in most occasions, regular civilian succession has continued this far.
Probably the greatest accomplishment of the South American nations is the creation of the South American Confederation. This economic and political union has united most of the continent and includes observers from Central America and the Caribbean. If the current pace of integration continues we could potential see the Confederation evolve into a "federation." This unified South America could potential unite all of Latin America and would exert a powerful influence not only in the Western Hemisphere, but the entire world.
Union of Sovereign Socialist Republics
The only world power that was left from the "Old Order" after Doomsday, it had remained relatively restrained after Doomsday, rebuilding and quietly expanding over the years. That, however, did not stop the country from slowly expanding its sphere of influence, starting from the skirmishes in Alaska in 1987 to the invasion of northern Manchuria in 1990, the stand off at the Panama Canal in 2005, all the way to the war in Aralia, the retaking of the Primorskaya Krai and police actions in Nicaragua in 2010, to name a few.
In recent times it has also participated in various international organizations, such as the League of Nations, the WCRB, the Red Cross, the Socialist International, as well as creating the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It is the WCRB's estimate that their power will grow in coming years, alongside other world powers, as it continues to expand into former Soviet and PRC territory.
Potential Hot Spots
Although one of the currently most feared political hot spots, no overt hostile actions have occurred in Eastern Europe. The main fear is that when the Socialist Union reaches the borders of other European countries created in former Soviet territory a strong, either political, economic or military action will be undertaken to reclaim the territory, regardless of the consequences.
These fears have surfaced in large part due to the Siberian invasion of Aralia after it had reached its borders, as well as the ongoing conflict with the Muslim Liberation Army, as well as the conflict in Afghanistan.
Fears have also started to grow because of a leaked Siberian document, which shows some of the Siberian plans regarding future expansion into both former Soviet and PRC territory. Although it shows some of the well known facts, such as the re-admittance of the Ural Territory into the RSFSR and the Kazakh SSR by 2011, as well as the re-admittance of the Primorskaya Territory into the RSFSR by 2015, other plans have also resurfaced. Although retaking the entirety of Central Asia was never a secret, the plans for Europe were overtly aggressive in nature.
The plans show that Siberian generals plan on retaking the northern coast of the former Soviet Union, together with communist Karelia, reaching the remains of the port city of Murmansk by late 2012 or early 2013, renaiming it into the Northwestern Territory. An addendum to the plan also states that if the Republic of Karelia plans on joining the Nordic Union that the USSR will put significant pressure on the NU to return lost territory, as this is the country's "historic right“.
The document, although disturbing, has not really left the other world powers surprised, as they expected that this would occur sooner, rather than later. The Socialist Union continues to deny the authenticity of the document, claiming that it is a fake.
Middle East and North Africa
Pre-Doomsday, Middle Eastern and North African. geopolitics largely surrounded the nation of Israel and the competition of the two superpowers in the area. Several nations, such as Egypt and Syria, were generally aligned with the Soviet Union, however, Egypt had begun to move out of the Soviet orbit. Other nations, such as Turkey and Israel, were allies of the United States. The region was primarily characterized by a series of Arab-Israeli Wars that all resulted in Arab defeats. This led to a weakening of Egypt, a traditional power in the region. Other states, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, were growing in power and wealth due to the sale of petroleum, a resource monopolized by Middle Eastern nations, which also enabled them to dictate global trends through the manipulation of oil.
After Doomsday, the geopolitical map was radically changed. Israel was severely weakened by a several nuclear strikes and Syria completely collapsed. Turkey also collapsed into civil war as a result of the event. Shortly after Doomsday, the Muslim Brotherhood seized control of the Egyptian government through a violent coup and went to war against Israel. The war ended in the nuclear destruction of Cairo and the loss of the Suez region. Ultimately, much of the Nile Delta was abandoned due to radiation and the government relocated to new cities build along the Eonile. Several years later, with the effects of the war still crippling Egypt, Greece was able to take control of the Nile Delta and the Suez Canal, uniting them in the state of Kemet. Greece also managed to seize control of the Libyan coast establishing themselves as a major power in the Mediterranean.
In addition, most of the North African states collapsed after Doomsday due to economic chaos and internal conflicts. Morocco, affected by a nuclear strike on Spanish Morocco and griped by internal chaos, was forced to withdrawal from the Western Sahara and the state fractured. Algeria collapsed into civil war with many small states, such as Kabylie, rising from the ashes, though some remnants of the central governmentremained. Tunisia was conquered by Sicily in 2004. Libya collapsed in the years following Doomsday like Algeria. Later, much of the coastal regions were annexed by Greece and the interior desert regions by Egypt.
At the same time, the Iraq-Iran War escalated due to the end of a fear of foreign intervention and Iraq used chemical weaponry to defeat Iran, leading to a short-lived era of Iraqi dominance in the Middle East. However, a radiological attack on Baghdad killed much of Iraq's leadership leading to civil war and the emergence of Iran as a major power in the region. Kurdistan was the most powerful state to arise from the collapse of Iraq and entered into an alliance with Iran and Pakistan}, forming the most powerful block in the Middle East. Remnants of the Republic of Iraq survive, along with the Shia Iran-aligned Islamic Republic of Iraq in the south, and the microstate Assyria within the borders of Kurdistan. In response to Iran's rise, the nations of the Arabian peninsula banded together to form the Gulf States Union (GSU). Together, they are able to compete with Iran and, through their control of most of the world's oil, have become a major military power.
In the early 2000s, the Sultanate of Turkey emerged as a potential power in the Middle East. They began expanding into western Syria in the late 1990s and have become a vocal opponent of Greece, which has come to dominate the eastern Mediterranean and control Arab lands, during their quest to reunify all pre-Doomsday Turkish territory. Some have commented that Turkey's obsession with Greece could result in wars with an unpredictable outcome. However, their quest to reunify Turkey has also brought them into conflict with Kurdistan, and potentially Iran down the road. However, they are still weaker and poorer than Iran and the GSU at the moment. In 2011, Turkey, Lebanon, and several allies in the Balkans formed the Mediterranean Defense League, which is to believed to serve as a counterweight to the ADC in the Mediterranean and the Iran-Kurdistan-Pakistan axis to the east.
In the future, the WCRB predicts that the Middle East will align into three blocs with overlapping:
- 1. Mediterranean Defense League
- 2. Gulf States Union
- 2. Iran, Kurdistan, and Pakistan
The survivor states of Syria and Azerbaijan are expected to move toward the Mediterranean Defense League with membership a possibility in the future. Israeli-Palestine, the Republic of Iraq, and Jordan have already begun to align themselves with GSU. The Islamic Republic of Iraq and MLA-associated states in Central Asia will gravitate towards the Iranian-Kurdish-Pakistani axis.
Conflict between these three blocks will most likely remain in covert spheres for the near future. It was formerly believed that conflict would erupt during the next 20 years over the Turkish-Kurdish territorial dispute. However, cooperation between Turkey and Iran to slow the Siberian advance and rumored joint influence over the MLA has decreased fears of such a conflict erupting. The GSU and Iran are attempting to covertly destabilize each other by aggravating their respective minorities, Shia in the GSU and Baluchs, Azeris, Arabs, and Turkmen in Iran. However, the balance of power will largely be determined by what occurs in Iraq. At the moment, the Iranians are believed to have the upper hand in Iraq through the Islamic Republic of Iraq and Kurdistan.
As communication and trade lines have been re-established, talks between survivor communities of various defunct states have suggested that sometime in the future these former countries might be resurrected. While some cases can be dismissed as wishful thinking, others have been discovered to have a level of realism that world leaders should take note of.
Discussions of a French "Seventh Republic" have become more serious in the 21st century. On January 7, 2010, Prefect Patrick Stéfanini and Premier Ministre Valéry Giscard d'Estaing expressed their support of unification during the opening ceremonies of the République des Terres Française Australes' (RTFA) embassy in Auvergne. Meanwhile on March 23, 2010, it was announced that a conference for the French-Successor states would be held in Clermont-Ferrand on May 23, 2010. Notice has been given to representatives of all French successor states, and observer status has been offered to Luxembourg and Corsica.
There is a high probability of a reunified France sometime between 2015 and 2020. Though the Seventh Republic will likely be established, it will be more of a confederation at first because of the strong nationalist feelings of the various French survivor states that have joined together to restore France. The RTFA, with economic support from the ANZC and the SAC, is expected to be driving force behind the union. La République Poitevine and Auvergne have some of strongest support for reunification and are suspected to be the first members of the Seventh Republic.
That being said this new France would likely be smaller than the pre-Doomsday France. It is unlikely that Luxemburg, Monaco, Celtic Alliance, Pays-Libres des Basques or Grand-Andorre would surrender their former French territory to this new Republic. These former claims on territory will have to be negotiated over or it may lead to future conflicts if French nationalists demand the return of all former French territory. This new France would also inherit the RTFA's dispute with Canada over the islands of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon. In addition, recent contact with the Duchy of Orléans has once again brought up the issue of the French Monarchy, to the surprise of royalists. WCRB analysts suggest that the Seventh Republic, when established, will follow a Constitutional Monarchy line, with the Orleanist Prince as a figure-head. This could lead to a peaceful resolution with Andorra, as prior treaty law stipulated that the supreme leader of France serve as co-prince of Andorra. This same issue may result in conflict with a restored Spain, down the road.
There have been discussions involving a reunified Germany. Already a proposed name, the "German Commonwealth", has been suggested and some analysts put Germany reunification sometime between 2015 and 2020. Despite this, the WCRB feels that German reunification is improbable. The survivor communities of Bavaria have already expressed interest in joining the Alpine Confederation. Meanwhile, Prussia's and North Germany's different government systems would make cooperation between the two states highly unlikely. One or the other would have to completely abandon their system of government in order to unify.
The WCRB instead feels that the former territory of East and West Germany would solidify into Prussian, North German, and Alpine territory. By 2020 it is expected that most territory would be either claimed by these expanding nations or controlled by the smaller German survivor states and Luxembourg that are also expanding.
United States of America
Since the American Provisional Administration disbanded in 1995 and the Committee to Restore the United States of America (CRUSA) was founded shortly thereafter, the dream of reuniting the shattered USA has been the topic of many members of the American diaspora. As contact has been made with survivor states far in the American interior and as CRUSA expands its influence, the dream of reuniting America seems more realistic than it did a decade ago. Supporters of this idea point toward the foundation of the Municipal States of the Pacific and the Provisional United States (PUSA) as evidence of different survivor communities banding together to form larger entities. Some supporters of American reunification feel that there will be a United States sometime between 2018 and 2023. The PUSA announced a new constitution on July 4, 2010, and declared themselves the new United States of America.
Other analysts, which includes the WCRB, disagree with these predictions and feel that they tend to be too optimistic. The cost of such a venture would involve massive investment. Power grids, telecommunications and the interstate system would all have to be rebuilt. Mexico, the South American Confederation, or the Commonwealth of Australia and New Zealand would almost certainly be involved; and neither country has shown interest in spending the necessary funds and political capital to ressurect the destroyed superpower. The states of Latin America are particularly against reforming the United States, fearing a return of the time when they were subservient to North Americans. Meanwhile, the League of Nations has also been working to identify any remaining nuclear weapons in the world and would no doubt be against recreating a large, nuclear-armed nation in North America.
Another reason for why it is unlikely that the United States would be reunited is how diverse American survivor communities have become. Some of these states have evolved such diverse identities that many in population no longer identify themselves as American. The Virginian Republic and the Republic of Lincoln have already expressed that they have no interest in joining any new United States and have barred CRUSA agents from their territory. Some American survivor states are even looking at joining foreign unions. For example, parts of North Dakota have joined the Canadian survivor nation of Assiniboia, while the northwestern part of the former Washington state already joined Victoria, a Canadian suvivor nation.
While a complete American unification might be implausible, local unions are still likely to arise from the ashes of America. The North American Union (NAU), an organization created between American and Canadian allied states after the Lakotah War, has shown potential to become larger especially after the ascension of the Lakotah and Utah. Meanwhile there has been discussion among the member states of the Dixie Alliance, the survivor states of Texas and the survivor states of New England in forming regional unions similar to the NAU. It is likely that more American survivor states will ban together in regional unions or federations, similar to the ANZC and the SAC.
Since this report contains many projections and predictions, it is entirely likely that what has been expressed in this report will not come to pass. This section is for amendments to the report on whether actual history meets or contradicts the events predicted in this report.
- With the United States being restored as of July 4, 2010, it is possible that the new United States in the Great Plains may cause new tensions with the Socialist Siberia. Meanwhile other American survivor communities, such as the Texan survivor nations and the three Floridian survivor nations will unite in 2011 as the Republic of Texas and the Republic of Florida respectively.