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Alternate History

1853-95 (The Right Blunder)

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"Suffice it to say that bigger-army diplomacy was involved."-CGP Grey

The latter half of the nineteenth century was marked by the dominance of Austria, Russia, and Britain over world affairs, though they often clashed. The armies of the Imperial League (Austria and Russia, plus Italian, German, and Balkan allies) dominated central and eastern Europe, but the British, along with the Chinese and Japanese at times, managed to hold off Russia in Asia. Though the two great powers seemed grand indeed, the relative lack of long, large wars hid both's massive weakness, despite new technologies and vast empires.

Anything not mentioned is assumed to have gone as OTL, including basically everything in the Americas.

Europe

The Danubian War and Russia

TRBeurope1853

Europe before the POD

The Danubian War began over a dispute between France and Russia over church rights in the Holy Land, but the pavement on the road to war came from the 'Eastern Question,' the division of the tottering Ottoman Empire

. Austria, Russia, and Greece, thanks to the leadership of Marshals Ivan Paskevich and Joseph Radetzky, decisively defeated Britain, France, and the Ottoman empire, leading to a the stripping of the Ottoman's Balkan provinces under the Treaty of San Stefano

.
San Stefano

The Balkans after the treaty

The victors divided the Balkans among themselves, the Austrians and Russians mainly through spheres of influence. Nicholas I died in early 1856, and Alexander II ascended to the Tsardom. Upon taking office, the liberal Tsar began a program to free the serfs, and with the urgings of Marshal Paskevich and Minister of War Dmitry Milyutin, launched an ambitious military overhaul. Domestic reforms, however, proved more limited than in OTL.

The Ten Weeks' War and Austria

The Second Schleswig War went as OTL, and the dispute over administration led, as in OTL to conflict between Austria and Prussia. The Ten Week's War became a much wider conflict than in OTL, as Russia backed Austria, Napoleon III chose to help Prussia, desperately needing a foreign policy victory, and Sardinia attempted to unify Italy. Thanks to superior Austrian artillery, slow French mobilization, and the generalship of Dmitry Milyutin , the Austro-Russian alliance prevailed, placing indemnities and military restrictions on Prussia and Sardinia, though both nations avoided the latter. Despite giving financial support to France, Britain chose to remain in 'Splendid Isolation.' Despite her defeats, under Bismark's leadership, Prussia's economy boomed, while she secretly prepared an even more powerful army. France, however, collapsed, changing to a republic, which also instituted military reforms.

After the war, the Holy Alliance was officially dissolved and replaced by the Emperor's League, consisting of Austria, Russia, Austria's German allies, all Italian states except Sardinia , and the Balkan nations. The League mainly functioned as a military alliance.

Without the disastrous Austro-Prussian war, Austria did not morph into Austria-Hungary, and the Hungarians never oppressed the Balkan peoples, significantly reducing (though not altogether avoiding) the empire's chronic ethnic troubles. Thanks to the economically liberal Baron Alexander von Bach staying in power, the Austrian economy rapidly improved along with industrialization, with one of the highest growth rates in Europe. The Empire also greatly benefited from increased trade with Russia and her empire in the Balkans.

The Balkans

Great Game

Asia at the Game's Start

In 1867, Otto I of Greece died without any legitimate children. The Greeks deeply resented him, but they preferred a British candidate. Russia and Austria would have none of this, so they and the other Balkan nations massed troops near the Greek border, preparing to put Lutwig I

, Otto's brother, on the throne. The Greek army chose to surrender without any major fighting. Lutwig, however, proved a capable and popular ruler.

The assassination of Alexander II by leftist extremists and the ascension of Nicholas III brought Russian and Austrian attempts to even further control the Balkans with secret police. Numerous revolutionary organizations prepared to rebel, and got further assistance from Britain and the Great Comet of 1882, which they saw as a sign. Revolts occurred everywhere, but the main large-scale sucesses came in Bosnia and Novi Pazar, which always opposed the Habsburgs, and Bulgaria, where the Russian-born monarch Michael I

had an extremely popular son,
TRB Balkans 1884

The Balkans after the revolt's defeat.

Prince Nicholas of Bulgaria

, who, however refused to take the throne. Stefan Stambolov , the brave and charismatic leader of the Bulgarians, did gain some success, but the power of the Russian army proved unstoppable. Afterwards, the Russians and Austrians placed all of the Balkans, except Greece, whom the shrewd political games of Ludwig protected, under direct occupation. In 1884, the last embers of revolt died down, and Bulgaria lost much of Macedonia and all of Dobruja. Stambolov fled to Britain.

The Great Game

Turkey, Egypt and the Aegean

The Ottoman Empire 's power declined sharply after her devastating defeat in the Danubian War. Without the bloody suppression of the April Uprising, Britain's alliance with the Ottoman empire never breaks, and slowly the country came under more and more British economic and political control, though this did somewhat help development.

After a Greek Revolt, the British took complete control of Cyprus. The British, despite local opposition, fully annex the Ionian islands, and heavily fortify them. In response, the Russians intensify construction of the Corinth Canal, also increasing its width to 90 feet.

Section on Egypt upcoming.

East Asia

Most imperialism in the region goes as OTL unless stated otherwise.

In the peace negotiations after the Second Opium War, Britain forced the Chinese to allow British troops through Tibet, should it ever become necessary. In 1862, a dispute over the pricing of bamboo poles led to large-scale Muslim revolts in Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia. The revolt was an extremely chaotic affair, with dozens of groups fighting the Chinese and each other, though none of them seemed to wish for a march on Beijing. At first, the British took no interest in the fighting, but when the Russians started supporting Taranchi groups in the Tarim Basin, the British supported other rebel groups, and sent a force under Sir Robert Napier through Tibet. The Russians responded by extending their support to non-Taranchi groups, and sending in their own forces. The Russians gained the upper hand, but the British sent their fleet to force the Chinese to support them, and eventually gained the upper hand over Russia, but the arrival of Dmitry Milyutin saw the Anglo-Chinese forces pushed out of Xinjiang. Eventually, Disraeli negotiated the Treaty of Hong Kong, where China lost numerous border areas to Britain and Russia, Tibet and the Dungan areas outside of Xinjiang became Anglo-Chinese 'condominiums' (the latter much more than the former), while the Tarim basin became a Sino-Russian (Emphasis latter) condominium. The British, supported by the forces of Yaqub Beg fought one last campaign in Kashgaria, against the oncoming Russians, but it proved futile, and all of Xinjiang fell to Russia. The Dungan Revolt , lasting until 1878, is usually considered the height of the Great Game.

Japan mostly progressed as OTL, with one major exception: the Tsushima incident. When the Russians attempted to turn the Japanese isle into a naval base in 1860, the British responded by sending warships to the area. Russia backed down and abandoned the island, but Viscount Palmerston made a British guarantee of Japan's security from Russian aggression.

OTL German New Guinea mostly stays Spanish, but Australia takes some parts.

Persia and Afghanistan

Britain always feared that Russia would seize the two nations. The First and Second Anglo-Afghan Wars went as OTL, but the Pandjeh incident led to a larger negotiation-Russia got a slightly larger portion of Afghanistan in the map-drawing after the Panjdeh incident, in exchange for the British occupying most of Persia (along the 'no concessions' line of the OTL Anglo-Russian Entente.)

Africa

The Scramble for Africa goes mostly as OTL with the exception of Italy and Germany, which don't exist. The German colonies are split between Britain, France, and Belgium, like after World War One in OTL. The British take Italian Somaliland. In OTL, there was an abortive Russian attempt at settling Djibouti, but in this TL they choose Eritrea instead and establish a colony, albeit by treaty with the British, they may not base anything larger than a gunboat there. Libya remained Ottoman, as did the Dodecanese.

The Slide Towards War

Both the Panjdeh incident and the establishment of Russian Eritrea nearly led to international conflict, but few at the time thought Japan's 1894 attack on China would lead to the same. The Sino-Japanese War went as OTL, but with Germany nonexistent and France inimical to Russia, only Russia and faraway Austria demanded a Japanese withdrawal from the Liaodong peninsula, which Japan refused to do. The crisis deepened when Russia occupied Manchuria, taking the land by July 1895, and recognized the Republic of Formosa, at war with the Japanese. British Prime Minister Archibald Primrose (Yes, that was his name. Did I mention he was Earl of Rosebery?) proved unable to handle the crisis and resigned. The new PM, Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, wished to avoid war, but when Russian troops began launching shells over the Yalu in late August, he gave the Russians an ultimatum: retreat or face war. They chose the latter. Within a month, nearly every nation in Europe joined one or the other. World War One had begun.

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